Was The TSA Crisis Written In Project 2025?
Travelers across the United States faced a frustrating reality this past weekend: long TSA wait times, in some cases stretching to 55 minutes or more at major airports. The delays come as the TSA grapples with a growing staffing shortage tied to a partial government shutdown that began in mid-February. According to The Hill, more than 400 TSA officers have quit since February 14, 2026, an alarming sign of strain on the system. Sadly, soon airports could close if an agreement isn’t reached.
As TSA wait times increase and conditions worsen, a bigger question is emerging: Was this moment anticipated, or even encouraged, by the Republican policy blueprint known as Project 2025?
A System Under Pressure.
The TSA, formally known as the Transportation Security Administration, is responsible for securing U.S. airports and screening passengers. It operates under the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which has now been partially shut down for six weeks, one of the longest shutdowns in U.S. history.
Due to the lapse in funding, tens of thousands of TSA workers have been working without full pay. Reports indicate that roughly 60,000 agents are effectively working with partial or zero compensation, worsening morale and contributing directly to staffing shortages, and in turn, rising TSA wait times nationwide.
To manage the situation, the Trump administration has deployed ICE agents to assist with airport operations, including baggage checks. While intended to ease congestion, the move has added to the controversy and heightened tensions around the issue.
Is Project 2025 at work with TSA?
Digital content creator adivunsolicited claimed that the TSA chaos was a direct move plucked straight from the Project 2025 handbook, a conservative policy roadmap for reshaping federal agencies. Specifically, Chapter 5 of Project 2025 calls for major changes to DHS and explicitly targets the TSA. On page 159 of the PDF version, the document states that “[until it is privatized, TSA should be treated as a national security provider, and its workforce should be de-unionized immediately.”
“This isn’t just about long lines. It’s Page 159 of Project 2025 in action,” adivunsolicited captioned his video on the issue.
“1. Starve the TSA until it ‘fails.’ 2. Use ‘force multipliers’ (ICE) to normalize armed enforcement in airports. 3. Push for total privatization to kill the federal union. Is this about security, or is it a ‘Trojan Horse’ for something else?” he questioned.
Right now, it does appear that the conservative playbook is at work. Notably, Project 2025 also described the current TSA model as “costly” and suggested shifting toward privatized screening systems similar to those used in Canada and parts of Europe. Under such proposals, private contractors would take over screening operations, while the government would maintain oversight and regulatory authority.
It noted that doing so could reduce costs by “15–20%” and potentially improve efficiency. But critics warn that such changes could worsen working conditions, and ultimately increase TSA chaos, not reduce it.
Policy Moves and Project 2025 Connections.
Recent policy decisions have intensified scrutiny. In March 2025, DHS Secretary Kristi Noem announced the termination of collective bargaining rights for nearly 50,000 TSA workers. Soon after, Senate Republicans Mike Lee (R-UT) and Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) introduced the “Abolish the TSA Act,” which proposes privatizing airport security operations.
If passed, the act would establish the Office of Aviation Security Oversight within the FAA, which would be solely responsible for managing the privatization of aviation security screening. It would also mandate a rapid transfer of security activities and equipment to qualified private companies, while shifting non-aviation security responsibilities, such as mass transit, freight rail, and pipelines, to the Department of Transportation. In addition, the proposal calls for proportional reductions in TSA operations and personnel to help facilitate the transition of duties.
Privatization Debate: What do critics say?
The idea of privatizing the TSA is not new. The Screening Partnership Program (SPP), introduced in 2004, already allows private companies to handle security at a limited number of airports under TSA oversight. However, Project 2025 and recent legislation would expand this model nationwide.
Critics say this would effectively return the U.S. to a pre-9/11 system, when private contractors were responsible for airport security, a structure widely blamed for security lapses. The TSA was created in November 2001 by Congress following the 9/11 terrorist attacks to strengthen transportation security, specifically by federalizing airport security.
Johnny Jones, a union leader representing TSA workers, highlighted this concern.
“Everybody recalls what happened on 9/11,” Jones told POLITICO Pro in 2024. “Since we’ve made this change, there hasn’t been a 9/11.”
Some analysts and labor advocates have long warned that privatization could create more problems than it solves. Writer Lainey Newman argued in a 2025 article that shifting away from a federal workforce would likely harm both employees and travelers.
“If the past is any prediction of the future, privatizing TSA would pose a whole host of problems, and it would not necessarily cure any of the gripes that Americans have with airport security,” wrote Lainey Newman in her OnLabor article on the tense debate published in 2025. “In fact, it would likely exacerbate them. For one, it would almost certainly mean a return to employee dissatisfaction.”
In 2018, the American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) reported that across 10 major U.S. airports, the TSA hired 8,553 officers between 2012 and 2016, but nearly as many, 7,784 officers, left during that same period due to low pay, hazardous working conditions, limited workplace rights, and ongoing concerns about privatization.
Newman shed light on this reality, writing:
“Companies that contract with the federal government to provide private airport security under the SPP program pay lower wages and provide worse benefits than TSA. Defense Consulting Services, for example, is an SPP participant that contracts with TSA at the Portsmouth International Airport in New Hampshire. They advertise “hourly pay ranging from $18.00 to $20.07 per hour,” or approximately $37,440 to $41,600 per year. In contrast, USA Jobs advertises a yearly salary ranging from $66,067 and $81,935 for government-employed TSA agents. Not to mention better benefits, which is a huge incentive for working a government job.”
These concerns tie directly back to the current crisis. Lower pay, reduced benefits, and weakened labor protections could make it harder to retain staff, further increasing TSA wait times and weakening overall security effectiveness.
The current situation highlights a critical crossroads for the TSA. Years of reforms had improved worker satisfaction, including pay increases and expanded bargaining rights under previous administrations. In 2021, former President Joe Biden expanded union rights for TSA workers. Then, employee engagement rose significantly between 2022 and 2023 thanks to an updated payment structure implemented by his administration.
It resulted in an average pay increase of 26% with some officers receiving pay increases up to 40%, according to a press release. Notably, TSA employee satisfaction jumped the following year to 60.7%, according to the Partnership For Public Service. Passenger satisfaction was also high.
Now, with funding halted and policy changes underway, many of those gains appear to be unraveling and uncertainty continues to grow.
So, Was It Predicted?
While it’s impossible to say definitively that today’s TSA wait-time crisis and ICE involvement were planned, the overlap between current policies and the recommendations outlined in Project 2025 is striking. From deunionization to privatization, many of the ideas now shaping the TSA debate were clearly laid out in advance. For critics, that connection is more than a coincidence; it’s confirmation.
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