Economists calculated exactly how much Trump tariffs will cost you in 2026—and who is paying the most
The majority of President Trump’s tariffs were struck down earlier this year by the Supreme Court, but a number remain in place, with the threat of higher tariffs still to come. While the importers of tariffed goods are the ones who pay the actual tariff costs up front, they generally pass the cost of those tariffs onto you, the consumer, through higher prices.
But just how much extra can you expect to pay this year based on the current tariff situation? That depends heavily on several factors, including your income level, your household size, and where you live in the country.
The average household will pay around $600 in 2026 due to tariffs
The good news is that the amount the average household will pay out during 2026 due to Trump’s tariffs is down from their 2025 levels, reports CNBC.
In 2025, the average US household incurred about $1,000 in tariff-related expenses, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Tax Foundation. But in 2026, that number is expected to shrink to about $600 per household on average.
That figure is in the same range as what an analysis by Yale University’s Budget Lab found: that in 2026, the average household will pay around $570 in tariff-related costs.
However, as CNBC notes, the additional costs a household will bear from tariffs can vary widely depending on several factors.
The most significant factor is family size. After all, a household with six family members needs to buy a lot more goods throughout the year than a household with a family of three. These goods encompass everything from food to electronics.
But CNBC also notes that another important factor in how much an individual household will pay is where that household is based. Households in high-cost states like California will inevitably pay more in tariff expenses than those in lower-cost states like Alabama. This is because the cost of goods in high-cost states is generally higher than in low-cost states, so the impact of tariff-related cost rises is greater.
Wealthier households pay more in tariff costs, but low-income households are more impacted
The more tariffed goods a household buys, the more exposure they’ll have to increased prices. And since wealthier households tend to buy more goods, those households will naturally pay more in tariff-related price rises than lower-income households.
However, unfortunately, it is lower-income households who will see a greater impact on their overall finances than wealthier ones. That’s because while wealthy households may incur a higher dollar value in tariff costs, lower-income households will incur more of a loss as a percentage of their entire income.
For example, as CNBC points out, Yale Budget Lab found that the bottom 10% and top 10% of households by income are expected to incur around $315 and $1,325 in tariff costs, respectively. But $1,325 in tariff costs for a wealthy household amounts to just a 0.3% reduction in after-tax income on average, whereas $315 in tariff costs for low-income households amounts to an after-tax income reduction of 0.8%.
In short, while tariffs will affect nearly every American, they will have a greater negative impact on those who live in larger households in high-cost states and are on the lower end of the income spectrum.