AOC draws parallel between prediction markets and Big Tobacco, floats advertising ban
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- AOC wants to crack down on the growing prediction market industry.
- She has a particular parallel in mind: the fight against Big Tobacco.
- "There's a lot of things that we can learn from regulation of the tobacco industry," she said.
When it comes to regulating prediction markets, Rep. Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez thinks about Big Tobacco.
"I think there's a lot of things that we can learn from regulation of the tobacco industry that we can apply here," the New York Democrat told Business Insider on Wednesday.
Ocasio-Cortez floated a "ban on advertising" for prediction markets, while noting that restrictions on the tobacco industry have included a TV advertising ban, bringing cigarettes behind store counters, and raising minimum age requirements.
"Just like when we took on Big Tobacco, there was a large array of different regulations that were brought up to effectively rein in the industry," she said. "It wasn't one silver bullet."
In recent days, the New York progressive has emerged as a staunch critic of prediction markets, lamenting a recent Polymarket licensing deal with Major League Baseball as "sad" while arguing that Kalshi's recent steps to combat insider trading are "absolutely not enough."
And while other lawmakers have proposed regulations like banning particular types of markets or blocking certain people from trading, Ocasio-Cortez has leaned into a broader critique about the spread of gambling and the potential for addiction.
"Pervasive gambling is not good for society," Ocasio-Cortez wrote on X in response to Polymarket announcing a licensing deal with Major League Baseball. "It turns life into a casino, traps people in addiction & debt, surges domestic violence, and fosters manipulation."
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket contend that what they offer is not gambling, but a form of trading. It's a legal distinction that's crucial for the companies as they seek to avoid coming under state-level gambling regulations, particularly for sports trades.
But prediction markets have stirred concerns about gambling addiction, particularly among young men.
Ocasio-Cortez said that she was open to a variety of ideas on prediction markets, aside from Big Tobacco-like regulations.
"It really depends on how much mass popularity we can get," she said. "Some folks say, listen, we shouldn't have any gambling except for Vegas and Atlantic City, and that there should be that physical friction. And if you want to go out there and do that, cool."
After Ocasio-Cortez criticized the Polymarket-MLB deal, several prominent conservative commentators weighed in to say that they agreed with her, indicating that resistance to prediction markets has some purchase across the political spectrum.
"I was surprised by it," Ocasio-Cortez said of the praise from the right.
So far, most of the energy around cracking down on prediction markets is among Democrats, with just a handful of Republicans expressing concerns about the markets or signing onto bills.
Ocasio-Cortez also said that she was worried about the potential for "influence and the intimidation of money" from the industry.
"Frankly, we need to start with not getting this place bought off by them," she said.