Apollo's top economist says markets are overreacting and the Iran war won't derail the US economy

• Apollo economist Torsten Sløk is feeling more upbeat about the US economy than many of his peers.
• He wrote on Friday that he doesn't think the Iran war will hurt US economic growth.
• Rather, he sees a temporary bout of market volatility leading to a longer period of stability.

Most economists are worried about the long-term impact of the Iran war, both on the stock market and the broader economy. Torsten Sløk of Apollo Global Management isn't one of them.

Sløk, the top economist at the private equity giant, has been more upbeat on the state of the US economy for months, and the Iran war hasn't changed his mind. Although geopolitical tensions have severely rattled financial markets over the past month, he still sees better days ahead.

Sløk shared his recent take on Apollo's The Daily Spark blog on Friday, laying out exactly where he thinks the economy is headed when the war ends.

"Markets are overreacting to what will likely be a 4- to 6-week period of volatility, which will ultimately result in 50 years of stability in oil markets, supply chains and geopolitics," he said.

The economist acknowledged that daily data have shown a decline in consumer sentiment in recent weeks. However, he added that he sees a difference between what people are saying and what they're doing, with spending in many categories still strong.

He highlighted that data shows solid figures in both airline travel and hotel demand, despite recent disruptions at US airports due to the partial government shutdown. He said he expects these positive trends to continue.

"The Gulf region will become more stable and even more closely integrated with the global economy," he added. "For the Fed, the rise in inflation due to higher oil prices is temporary; once the conflict is over, Fed cuts will be priced in again, and long rates will decline."

Other leading economists haven't been so optimistic when it comes to the US economy's fate following the Iran war. Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi recently predicted that if oil prices continue rising, they could trigger a full-blown recession, flagging $120 a barrel for Brent as the level to watch.

Nobel laureate Paul Krugman has argued that the US economy is nearing stagflation as the war persists, comparing it to the oil crisis of the 1970s, and former PIMCO CIO Mohamed El-Erian recently warned that the economic fallout from the war is on the verge of a tipping point.

Sløk, however, maintains that the US economy will recover quickly once the war winds down, noting that he thinks recent policies have set it up for success.

"The bottom line is that the Iran shock is not big enough to offset the strong tailwinds to the US economy from AI spending, the industrial renaissance and the One Big Beautiful Bill," he said.