Who poses the greatest threat to the survival of the Iranian regime?

Despite relentless bombardment and an ongoing war with the U.S. and Israel, the Iranian regime’s primary focus appears to lie elsewhere. The execution of four political prisoners within just two days is a stark and deeply shocking indication of this priority.

On the morning of Monday, March 30, the judiciary of the Islamic Republic executed two political prisoners, Akbar Daneshvarkar and Mohammad Taghavi. Authorities stated they had been charged with “membership in the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (MEK)” and “participation in armed operations in Tehran.”

Daneshvarkar, 58, a civil engineer, was arrested in January 2024, while Taghavi, 59, was arrested in 2020 and spent three years in prison. He had previously been detained as a political prisoner in the 1980s.

Then on Tuesday, March 31, two more political prisoners, Babak Alipour and Pouya Ghobadi, were executed. According to official sources, they were accused of “participation in armed operations against national security.”

Ghobadi, 33, an electrical engineer, was arrested in March 2024 and had a prior record of detention. Alipour, 34, a law graduate, was arrested in January 2024 and had previously spent four years in prison following his 2018 arrest.

The expansion of security measures across cities – particularly in Tehran – combined with the continuation of the war and the refusal to release prisoners exposed to the risk of bombardment points to growing concern within the regime about the potential for another internal uprising. These measures include:

• Internet shutdowns to facilitate repression
• Labeling protesters as enemy agents
• Deployment of heavily armed forces in public spaces
• Orders to shoot at protesters
• A sharp increase in security patrols
• Street maneuvers aimed at instilling fear
• The use of proxy forces affiliated with the pro-regime Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

In this context, a police spokesperson announced that more than 129,000 personnel are deployed around the clock. In addition, 1,463 checkpoints have been established nationwide and nearly 15,000 patrol units are continuously active. These figures reflect a significant tightening of internal security control across the country.

Concerns among families of political prisoners

Families of political prisoners fear a repeat of large-scale repression during times of crisis. As analysts note, at such critical junctures intensifying domestic repression has long been used as a tool for containing political unrest.

In 1981, Ayatollah Khomeini, founder of the Islamic Republic, faced what he perceived as a serious threat to his regime from the National Liberation Army (affiliated with the MEK, or Mojahedin-e-Khalq, another name for Iran’s major dissident group, the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran), stationed along the Iran-Iraq border. He was compelled to accept a ceasefire with Iraq to avert that danger, despite previously insisting the war should continue “until the last house in Tehran.” To compensate for this retreat, he issued a notorious fatwa ordering the mass execution of 30,000 political prisoners who remained steadfast in their beliefs. According to sources close to the opposition, more than 90% of them were affiliated with the MEK.

A choice between bad and the worst

On Monday, U.S. officials described their counterparts in the negotiations as “reasonable.” This raises a critical question: Is the Iranian regime seeking a ceasefire in order to secure its survival and refocus on its primary adversary – its own population and the organized resistance – so it can concentrate all its resources on preventing another uprising?

In this context, the regime may indeed be forced to scale back its nuclear ambitions. However, such a retreat could be accompanied by intensified repression to prevent fractures within its core support base.

It is worth recalling that Ali Khamenei, Iran’s former supreme leader who was killed on Feb. 28 during a joint U.S.-Israeli military operation, had long understood that refusing to compromise on the nuclear program could lead to another war – one that might even threaten his own survival. Yet, out of fear of internal fragmentation, he refrained from making such concessions.

Today, with many senior military and intelligence figures eliminated and the regime significantly weakened, public opinion, both inside Iran and internationally, is increasingly calling for an end to the current system. In this critical moment, the regime faces a stark choice: Abandon its nuclear ambitions – or risk total collapse.

A critical turning point

However, bringing about regime change requires a powerful force on the ground, one rooted in Iranian society and prepared to make sacrifices. Such a force exists today within Iran: the “Resistance Units,” established by the MEK nearly a decade ago.

Over the past year alone, they have carried out more than 4,000 operations. During the January uprising, they played a decisive role in organizing, directing and expanding protests, confronting security forces and protecting demonstrators.

More than 2,000 members of these units disappeared during the January uprising and their fate remains unknown.

A significant turning point came on Feb. 23 when 250 members of these Resistance Units targeted a compound associated with Ali Khamenei – one of the most heavily guarded sites in Iran. In this operation, 100 fighters were killed or arrested while 150 successfully returned to their bases. Government forces also reportedly suffered significant losses. The resistance has submitted the identities of 82 individuals, aged 18 to 69, who were killed or detained, to the United Nations.

This operation, carried out just weeks after the January 2026 uprising and the subsequent crackdown, sent a clear message: A capable and organized force exists within Iran that can challenge – and potentially overthrow – the regime.

The execution of political prisoners affiliated with these Resistance Units should be understood in this context.