Two Players Considered Overwhelming Favorites To Be Chicago Bears’ 1st Round Pick
The Chicago Bears won’t tell anybody who they plan to pick with the 25th selection this month. Part of that is because they don’t want people to know who they like. Another part is that they have no idea who will be available. Draft insiders haven’t gotten much information on who they’re even meeting with, let alone who they’re interested in. General manager Ryan Poles and head coach Ben Johnson deserve credit for keeping their intentions locked down from the public eye. So how do we know what they’ll do?
In these situations, math could be of help. The ESPN analytics team released its annual Draft Day Predictor ahead of April 23rd. It is meant to offer the mathematical odds for each prospect in the class and where they are most likely to be selected.
“The underlying model is based on prospect grades from Scouts Inc, expert mock drafts, and team needs along with a few other factors. The Predictor considers these factors in proportion to how accurate they have been in the past.”
This created an interesting question. Which players, if any, are favored to go 25th overall to Chicago? The data charts popped out two names who weren’t just favorites, but heavy favorites to go at that spot: Clemson defensive tackle Peter Woods and Toledo safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren.
Both players make sense for the Chicago Bears.
One of the big issues for them last season was interior pass rush. It was too inconsistent and lacked explosiveness. That is something Woods might bring to the table. He has a great athletic profile and the ideal mix of upper-body strength and lower-body burst. The big concern with him is his sparse production. He never had a true standout season at Clemson, leading many to wonder why. This uncertainty is why there is significant hesitation about taking him early in the draft. Maybe the Bears, with their strong coaching staff, might be willing to take the risk.
McNeil-Warren, on the other hand, is a classic throwback. He’s a big, strong safety with significant hitting power, leaving offensive players wary of crossing the middle. He is athletic enough to make plays in coverage and might be the most gifted forced fumble merchant since Charles Tillman. A creative defensive coordinator can make great use of his versatility. The Chicago Bears do have a starting spot open alongside Coby Bryant. He might be an ideal fit for the new vision for this team.
The Bears won’t reach at positions of need.
They’ve made this clear in the draft last year. Tight end and wide receiver were not at the top of their needs list in 2025, but they took them anyway. It worked out pretty well. There is another layer to this projection. Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com recently released his updated big board for this 2026 class. Keep in mind, it’s fed by both his tape evaluation and what he’s hearing around the NFL. McNeil-Warren is ranked 16th. Woods is ranked 37th. So if both are on the board, the decision seems pretty obvious.
Then again, there is always the chance that neither player is available. Then you’re looking at guys like Caleb Lomu, Blaker Miller, and Keldric Faulk. The truth is, most of the options when the Chicago Bears go on the clock will have questions about them. They’d go higher if they didn’t. The trick Poles and Johnson will be pinpointing the one guy whose flaws they can live with, or they think are incorrect or overblown.