Kazakhstan government doubles inflation forecast for 2026

Tengrinews.kz - Kazakhstan's government now expects inflation in 2026 to reach up to 10 percent, according to the new socio-economic development plan. Earlier forecasts were much lower, with authorities projecting inflation within 5-6 percent.
What happened
At a government meeting, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin presented the baseline economic outlook for 2026-2028. The key change concerns inflation: in 2026, it is now forecast at up to 10 percent.
Details

“Inflation in 2026 will not exceed 10 percent, and in 2027-2028 it will be at the level of 6 percent,” Zhumangarin said at the meeting.

According to him, Kazakhstan’s economy will grow 5.4 percent in 2026, with an average of 5.3 percent over the three-year period. Budget revenues are expected to reach 19.2 trillion tenge in 2026, while expenditures will total 27.7 trillion tenge. The budget deficit is forecast at 2.5 percent of GDP, with a plan to reduce it to below 1 percent by 2028. Annual transfers from the National Fund are projected at 2.77 trillion tenge, with no need for additional withdrawals.
Raising the ceiling
In August 2024, the Ministry of National Economy forecast significantly lower inflation levels — 5-6 percent in 2026, with a further decline to 5 percent in subsequent years.

“Inflation was set at 5.5-7.5 percent in 2025, 5-6 percent in 2026, with a decline to 5 percent in 2027-2029,” former Minister of National Economy Nurlan Baibazarov said at the time.

As of July 2025, Kazakhstan’s annual inflation stood at 11.8 percent. Earlier, the government projected 2025 inflation within 5.5-7.5 percent.
In 2024, the government aimed to keep inflation within 8 percent, but according to the Bureau of National Statistics, the actual rate exceeded the target, reaching 8.6 percent.
Read also: National Bank of Kazakhstan presents forecasts for inflation and oil prices