National Bank explains what is happening to the tenge exchange rate

Tengrinews.kz – The National Bank of Kazakhstan has commented on the situation in the foreign exchange market and recent movements of the tenge.
Tenge strengthens in December and across 2025
By the end of December, the tenge had strengthened by 1.3 percent to 505.73 tenge per US dollar. Average daily trading volume on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) increased from $280 million to $359 million over the month, while total trading volume in December reached $7.9 billion.
Overall, in 2025 the tenge strengthened by 3.7 percent, rising from 525.10 to 505.73 per dollar. Total foreign exchange trading volume for the year amounted to $63 billion, up 15 percent compared with the previous year.
The National Bank did not conduct any currency interventions in December.
National Fund operations
In December, $400 million was sold from the National Fund to replenish the republican budget and finance the construction of the Taldykorgan–Usharal main gas pipeline. This accounted for about 5 percent of total monthly trading volume, or roughly $18 million per day.
In total, $8.2 billion was sold from the National Fund over the course of 2025.
In January 2026, the National Bank expects foreign currency sales from the National Fund in the range of $350–450 million to convert budget transfers.
Mirroring operations and the FX market
As part of mirroring operations, 475 billion tenge were sterilized in December. Over the full year of 2025, currency sales from gold and foreign exchange reserves under these operations totaled $7 billion.
Background: Mirroring operations are used to absorb excess tenge liquidity. When the government sells foreign currency from the National Fund and receives tenge, liquidity in the economy increases. To prevent pressure on the exchange rate and inflation, the National Bank sells foreign currency to withdraw this excess tenge from the market.
In the first quarter of 2026, foreign currency sales equivalent to around 1.1 trillion tenge are planned to neutralize excess liquidity.
Pension fund and mandatory FX sales
Mandatory sales of foreign currency earnings by quasi-public sector entities amounted to about $315 million in December 2025.
No purchases of US dollars were made in December for the investment portfolio of pension assets of the Unified Accumulative Pension Fund (UAPF), and none are planned for January, as the share of foreign currency assets already exceeds 40 percent.

“In the short term, the tenge’s dynamics will depend on market expectations, quarterly tax payments, conditions in global markets and changes in the geopolitical environment,” the National Bank said.

It is worth recalling that on November 28, 2025, the National Bank decided to keep the base rate unchanged at 18 percent. Following that decision, the US dollar fell sharply during trading.