Marvel Rivals' most-picked hero also has one of the lowest win rates

We're still two days out from Marvel Rivals' first major seasonal update, which will add Reed Richards and Sue Storm to the lineup, but NetEase just introduced a new feature that's arguably of greater importance to players: a living webpage showing every hero's pick rate and win rate, divided by mode and platform.

You don't see that every day. Usually, official behavior data like this is kept behind lock-and-key, delivered in small chunks whenever a developer feels like it, or captured through imperfect third-party tools. This "Hero Hot List" webpage is simple, slick, and illuminating. Like, would you have guessed that Jeff the Land Shark is the most-picked hero in all of Quickplay at 21.18%?

Everybody wants a piece of the shark, maybe because they want a shot at insta-killing the other team with his ult, but he's not the winningest hero by a longshot. In fact, he has the second-lowest win rate on the roster at 45.39%. He's popular, but statistically speaking, you're more likely to lose with a Jeff on your team.

The lowest win rate in Quickplay? Black Widow (44.15%). That makes sense: The struggling sniper is also near the bottom of pick rate (2.93%) with only Storm (1.66%) and Namor (2.76%) lower.

The hero with the best win rate across both Quickplay and Competitive is support hero Mantis (56.03% for Quickplay and 55.20% in Competitive). That tracks with my partner becoming an obsessive Mantis main these last few weeks and rapidly climbing the ranks. Hela is right behind her with 54.24%—both Mantis and Hela are getting minor nerfs in Friday's season 1 patch.

If you're serious enough about Rivals to care about win rates, then you're probably interested in which heroes are the most likely to produce a win.

Here's the "over 50% win rate" club (Competitive):

1. Mantis (55.20%)
2. Hela (54.24%)
3. Loki (53.79%)
4. Magik (53.63%)
5. Adam Warlock (53.59%)
6. Rocket Raccoon (53.52%)
7. Peni Parker (53.05%)
8. Thor (52.65%)
9. Black Panther (52.60%)
10. Hulk (51.79%)
11. Psylocke (51.68%)
12. Namor (51.25%)

That's a Strategist heavy list, with the top six dominated by healers. Not shocking when you consider healing is one of the most important jobs in Marvel Rivals, but it also speaks to how well Rivals supports hold their own in a fight. One support notably absent from that list is Jeff the Land Shark, who also happens to have the weakest offense of his role. I reckon these win rates reflect a reality that's also true in other hero games: one of the most valuable things you can do is heal and kill at the same time.

If I were on the NetEase balance team, I'd be encouraged by this first dataset. The community has chosen its favorites, but pick rates are remarkably balanced for a game that launched with 33 unknown heroes a month ago. You can check out the list yourself here.