Don’t count on America’s wealthiest to help people struggling during the recession—philanthropic spending could go down, experts say

• Experts say that a possible U.S. recession could reel back total philanthropic spending, and studies show that the downturn could hurt donating in the long-term. With the possibility of an economic crisis being that of a coin toss, some donors may pull back to protect their finances. 

A recession is looming like a dark cloud over the heads of many working-class Americans, already struggling to keep up with rising costs of living. But America’s richest givers—set to pass down $84 trillion in the “great wealth transfer” by 2045—could also be affected, as they may pull the plug on their charitable donations if things take a turn for the worse. 

“We're hearing the extreme in terms of anxiety. We're hearing [from] people who think this is the end,” Susan Hirshman, director of wealth management for Schwab Wealth Advisory, tells Fortune. “If you're very uncertain, and you just want to keep things as they are, you may reduce [donating].”

Hirshman says that a possible recession could impact donors’ giving based mainly on three points: how strongly they feel about the cause, their standing among the 1%, and the severity of the economic downturn. But even then it won't be predictable, she says, noting that a majority of wealth transfers are goal-based—spending money with an altruistic vision in mind, like helping out a struggling family member or aiding community members. Goal-driven donors may be expected to give more when times are tough, but it could swing the other way. Emily Irwin, head of the advice center at Wells Fargo, agrees there has been a sentimental shift.

“We have seen in recent years [that] individuals have a propensity towards wanting to give their money away, whether it’s to the next generation or other charitable organizations,” Irwin tells Fortune. “Very often that goal is tied to some sort of personal, family, or community impact. And the personal might just be: ‘It’s time. I want to do good [on] the family impact, I want to actually alleviate some financial stress in the rising generation and for the community.’”

But there could be asymmetry in terms of who gets what; donors may stick behind helping their partners or children, but pull the ladder up on philanthropy. Both Hirshman and Irwin agree that there are a few key characteristics if someone will shy away from charitable giving: if they’re at the lower end of the 1%, without much cash to burn; if they have extreme anxiety about recouping on donations, which could risk their current finances; and if they don’t have a strong incentive to give. 

“When there's no goal behind [donating], when it really is a purely financially-motivated transaction, that’s when we're going to see pull-back,” Irwin says. 

Philanthropic spending wanes in times of crisis

America’s economic situation as of late is bleak: Goldman Sachs just raised its prediction of a U.S. recession to 35%, while JPMorgan upped the odds to 40%. Deutsche Bank even painted the economic downturn as a coin toss, giving it a 50-50 probability. These estimates have only been climbing as President Donald Trump continues to wage a war on international imports—including a 25% tariff on foreign cars, and a 10% hike on all Chinese products. 

But even in the worst-case scenario, experts tell Fortune that philanthropic spending won’t screech to a halt overall—only among those with serious anxiety, or who aren’t all in on charitable giving. Those adamant on continuing to donate will still contribute, but it will be less than what they normally give to reflect the current state of their finances. 

“No matter what the market is, people will always give to charities,” Hirshman says. “It may be less, because it's a percentage, and their percentage has gone down, so 10% of their wealth is now smaller than it was in the past. But it's still 10% of their wealth.”

The Great Recession of 2008 could offer clues as to what’s ahead. That’s when the economic downturn reduced total giving by 7%, and, in 2009, by another 6.2%, according to a 2012 report from the Russell Sage Foundation and the Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality. However, most giving households were still donating the same proportion of their income, and it took years for slight improvements in philanthropic spending, as the economy only modestly recovered. Giving increased slightly, by 1.3%, in 2010, and 0.9% in 2011. The Blackbaud Institute found that it took three years for the recession-related charitable donations to recover to pre-Great Recession levels. 

So a recession-impacted charitable downturn may be par for the course, based on America’s evolving philanthropy. In 2000, a little over two thirds of U.S. households donated to charitable causes; by 2018, that proportion dropped to just under half, according to 2021 research from the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy. The study also notes that the Great Recession of 2008 had the largest impact on donating trends, which did not reverse or slow when the economy recovered. 

There’s no telling if a possible U.S. recession will strike Americans as hard—and for as long—as the Great Recession did in 2008. But if the downturn lives up to economists’ worst nightmares, the pendulum could swing back against charitable giving. Only the richest and most philanthropic-hearted will be on track to maintain their donations. 

“In the long run, they may continue [giving to philanthropy],” Hirshman says. “It really depends on mindset, on assets, and on charitable beliefs.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com