Second wave ‘on track to be twice as bad as first’
The UK’s coronavirus second wave is on track to be ‘twice as bad as the first’, the Government’s chief scientific advisor has warned.
There could be several thousand deaths a day before the end of the year ‘unless action is taken now’, according to Sir Patrick Vallance.
He said models predicting the likely impact of the virus over the winter point to ‘the potential’ for deaths to be ‘twice as bad or more’ compared to the first wave in March and April.
It’s feared hospitals could be overwhelmed by early December, even in areas like the South West – where cases of the virus have so far been low.
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The stark warnings were issued as Boris Johnson announced a second national lockdown for England.
People are being told to stay at home except for exercise or to go to school or work, if it can’t be done from home.
Speaking at the press conference to announce the latest restrictions, Professor Chris Whitty said the number of people in NHS beds in England will exceed the peak of the first wave without further measures.
The chief medical officer said there is an increase in prevalence ‘in virtually every part of the country’, apart from possibly the North East where stricter measures are in place, and cases appear to be flatlining.
Discussing NHS bed use in England, Professor Whitty said: ‘Currently only in the North West is this coming close to the peak that we previously had, but it is increasing in every area.
‘And if we do nothing, the inevitable result is these numbers will go up and they will eventually exceed the peak that we saw in the spring of this year.’
He said some hospitals already have more inpatients with Covid than they saw during the spring.
Mr Vallance warned the NHS will reach full capacity by the first week of December – including even the Nightingale Hospitals which were under-used during the first wave.
The cancellation of non-coronavirus treatment would not stop the health service from being overwhelmed, he told the press conference.
He pointed to projections which showed more people could be admitted to hospital over the next six weeks than was seen over the first wave.
He said this would be seen ‘across the country as a whole’ with ‘some hospitals earlier than others, some a bit later’.
The models suggest ‘increasing deaths over the next six weeks’, with a figure close to the first wave peak by December 8 ‘if nothing is done’.
‘Clearly if you stop the R from increasing, if you allow R to come down then you would flatten this off and then potentially reverse it,’ Sir Patrick said.
‘But on the current trajectory that is what is thought to be the prediction for deaths over the next six weeks and of course that would continue to go up because the hospitalisations already exceeded the first wave peak by this time, deaths would follow.
‘So unfortunately that’s a very grim picture in terms of what this looks like in the absence of action and continued growth.’
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