Jordan Love won the bet on himself and absolutely deserves to hold-in for a $275 million contract

Jordan Love took a pay cut in 2023.

The former first round pick was staring down the fourth year of his rookie contract. As a Day 1 selection, that meant the Green Bay Packers had to decide whether or not to exercise a $20.27 million team option for the 2024 season a year in advance. Rather than gamble on the outcome with an unproven starter, the two sides came to a compromise.

Love swapped out the end his rookie deal for a one year extension with only $13.5 million guaranteed and up to $22 million in total value. This meant safe money up front and the chance for the Packers to escape the deal at a lower exit price if Love failed to pan out. From Love’s angle, it effectively doubled his career earnings even if it wouldn’t match the maximum value of his rookie contract. It also put him in position to sign a lucrative extension to make the whole point moot if he had a big 2023.

Love had a big 2023.

Love had moments of doubt. Green Bay started its season 3-6 as its quarterback struggled to find his sea legs amidst the choppy waters of NFL defenses. But thanks to a brilliant playbook that created huge openings, a rising corps of young playmakers and, importantly, his own ability to thread clutch passes through tight windows, the Packers thrived. Green Bay made it to the Divisional Round after routing the Dallas Cowboys on the road to end Year 1 of the Love Era as an undeniable success.

Love ranked second in the NFL in touchdown passes (32), seventh in passing yards (4,159) and ninth in QBR (61.2). He was, by most measures, significantly better than Trevor Lawrence, the first overall pick in the draft after Love’s in 2020:

In fairness, Lawrence struggled with injury last fall. But that didn’t stop him from signing a $275 million contract extension this summer with $200 million guaranteed. Now Love wants his chance to cash in.

Jordan Love will not practice until he has a new deal, Brian Gutekunst says. Love’s camp informed Packers of that decision Saturday.

Gutekunst says a deal could get done in the coming days, but you never know. Says big deals take time.

“I feel we’re close.” pic.twitter.com/yeW5ScbUMm

— Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) July 22, 2024

Love could have been relegated to a supporting role and walked away with less than maximum value for his rookie contract. Instead, he stepped into a hedged bet and won big. His poise in the pocket was invaluable to a team stuck in limbo after Aaron Rodgers decided he wanted out and the state of Wisconsin around him collectively said “fine.” Per Sumer Sports, his expected points added (EPA) of 85.9 was fifth-best in the NFL, trailing only Brock Purdy, Tua Tagovailoa, Dak Prescott and Josh Allen.

With the exception of Purdy, Stroud and Tagovailoa, all of whom are still on inexpensive rookie contracts (aggressively so in Purdy’s case), everyone in that top 10 makes at least $40 million annually. Joe Burrow, the first quarterback selected in 2020 before Love was drafted 22nd, makes $55 million per year — tied with Lawrence for the biggest salary in league history (for now).

This all makes Love’s expected $11 million cashout in 2024 look very dumb. Green Bay doesn’t have much wiggle room after the quarterback it hoped could succeed Rodgers went out and did the dang thing. But that’s a good problem to have and one the team can afford. The Packers can absorb a little money in 2024 thanks to more than $28 million in cap space still left this season.

Fitting him into 2025’s cap shouldn’t be too taxing either; per Over the Cap, Green Bay’s $47 million in estimated salary cap room is projected to be eighth-most in the NFL. While the team will also have decisions on whether to re-sign pending free agents Kenny Clark and Josh Myers as well as extending Quay Walker, Romeo Doubs or Christian Watson, this isn’t the kind of extension that would force the Packers into immediate cost-cutting measures.

So a hold-in makes sense. It also shouldn’t last especially long, as Love is both already extremely well liked by Green Bay faithful and has proven he can hang with the league’s highest-paid players despite only one full season as a starter. Whatever Love gets this summer, and it will be a lot, he’ll have earned. He bet on himself; he deserves the reward.