NFL straight-up picks, Week 4: Jayden Daniels hype train goes 'choo choo' in Arizona

I’m gonna be honest with you. My picks have been butt in 2024.

After a chalk-y Week 1, the NFL has been loaded with upsets the past two weeks. The Denver Broncos didn’t just get their first win; they did so by 19 points on the road against the NFC South leaders. The Cleveland Browns plumbed new lows in the Deshaun Watson era — an epoch with an incredibly low bar to clear in the first place — by getting stifled by the New York Giants at home. The Cincinnati Bengals are 0-3, with two of those losses coming against teams that had top three draft picks last spring.

For the second straight week, an 8-8 record was tops among FTW’s seven-person picks panel. So, oof.

What’s more troubling? For the second time in three weeks, my featured picks went 0-3. The data is clear; it’s time to fade my breakouts.

We’ll get to that. First, let’s get to the picks. Despite this year’s ongoing … unpleasantness, I had a pretty solid 2023, ending the year as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds — in fact, I’m now doing some side work in Pickwatch’s VIP Discord channels if you want to talk more about these games.

Joining me for 2024 is a six-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, Andrew Joseph, Meghan Hall). Here are our Week 4 picks:

and:

Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) jpg:

Let’s break out three games to talk about.

Easiest game to pick: Houston Texans (-6.5) vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars

Why I like this pick:

You’ve seen what the Jaguars are calling “football,” right?

Why I don’t like this pick:

Houston *just* got roasted by the Vikings. Absolutely cooked. I don’t trust the Jacksonville coaching staff enough to suggest the Jaguars have learned anything from that, but there are clearly holes here big enough they can’t be patched in one week. C.J. Stroud is having a very real sophomore slump despite the addition of Stefon Diggs, though it could merely be a brief haze rather than a year-long issue.

Last week: 0-1
2024 to date: 1-2 (.333)

Hardest favorite to back: Chicago Bears (-2.5) over the Los Angeles Rams

Why I like this pick:

Caleb Williams began to find his rhythm and now gets to face a bottom-two defense still finding its identity in a post-Aaron Donald world. The Bears defense finished 2023 as a top three unit after the Montez Sweat trade. In 2024 they’ve backslid… and are a top four unit. Los Angeles is 0-2 on the road and one of those losses was a 31-point stomping at the hands of a young, rising Arizona Cardinals team that, on paper, has less overall talent than the Bears.

Why I don’t like this pick:

The Bears found a way to lose to the NFL’s least efficient quarterback last week. Matt Eberflus is still Chicago’s coach, which means lots of plays that take way too long for his garbage offensive line to hold out. The Rams just overcame a 10-point fourth quarter deficit against the San Francisco 49ers. Relying on the Bears to do anything right has generally been a bad decision the past decade.

Last week: 0-1
2024 to date: 1-2 (.333)

Upset pick of the week: Washington Commanders (+3.5) over the Arizona Cardinals

If there’s any team that knows how to deal with an exciting, mobile and flawed young quarterback, it’s the team that practices against one every day. The Kyler Murray-Marvin Harrison Jr. combination is beginning to come alive and now it faces one of the league’s worst secondaries. Daniels’ Week 3 breakthrough was incredible, but not sustainable.

Last week: 0-1
2024 to date: 0-3 (.000)