10 teams that might wait to draft a QB after the 1st round
Who’s in the market for a developmental passer at the draft?
The 2018 NFL Draft class is loaded with top-tier passing prospects, a group that could tie a league record with up to six first-round quarterbacks. Players like Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Arnold, and Baker Mayfield are projected top-10 picks. 2016 Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson is a steady presence in first-round mock drafts, and Oklahoma State QB Mason Rudolph could sneak into Thursday’s final few picks with teams like the Jaguars and Patriots interested in bolstering their depth charts.
Those half-dozen won’t be the only quarterbacks taken in this year’s draft. This year’s crop of passers is top heavy, but there’s plenty of depth that could produce an overlooked gem in days two and three. Players like Kyle Lauletta, Luke Falk, and Mike White could all become prized prospects in the right environment.
What might that environment be? For most of 2018’s kinda-sorta needy teams, it starts with a veteran Pro Bowl quarterback nearing the end of his career. For others, a shaky starter leaves room for improvement, but passer may not be the team’s most pressing need.
Because of the high probability that they’ll draft a quarterback in the first round, teams like the New York Jets, New York Giants, Buffalo Bills, and Arizona Cardinals weren’t considered for this list. Here are eight teams that could spend Day 2 or 3 picks on quarterbacks at this year’s draft.
Baltimore Ravens
Joe Flacco suffered through the worst season of his professional career in 2017, ranking 32nd out of 32 qualified starting quarterbacks with an average 5.7 yards per pass. Baltimore’s response this offseason has been to revamp an awful receiver tree with a bunch of players you may have forgotten still play in the NFL (John Brown, Willie Snead, and Michael Crabtree).
Flacco should be better with a new group of veteran receivers, but the concern about his recent play is very real. His passing efficiency has decreased in each of the past three seasons, and at age 33, hope he can regain his Super Bowl-winning level of play is quickly running out. There’s still enough on Flacco’s resume that the Ravens don’t have to take a quarterback this spring, but with only Robert Griffin III and Josh Woodrum as backups, a late-round lottery ticket could bridge the club’s present to its future.
Cleveland Browns
Yep, the Browns will draft a quarterback with their first pick. But, they could follow Washington’s 2012 strategy and pick up some insurance for their first-round pick — the Cousins to their RGIII in 2018. General manager John Dorsey hasn’t ruled it out, and when you’ve got a quarterback history like Cleveland does, it makes some sense to take as many swings at the plate as you can get.
Denver Broncos
Denver signed its quarterback of the near-future by inking Case Keenum to a two-year deal and still has 2016 first rounder Paxton Lynch on the roster, but neither one may be a long term option. Keenum might not be around long, and there’s a chance he fails to live up to his 2017 standard. Lynch hasn’t been good in his first two seasons in the league nor inspired confidence thanks to his lack of growth.
General manager John Elway has already told the world his No. 5 pick is up for sale. The return could include the mid-round picks the franchise can burn on a lottery ticket quarterback like Lauletta or White.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Blake Bortles signed a three-year, $54 million extension this offseason, but the Jaguars can effectively unload him after 2019 if his modest improvements last fall aren’t sustainable. Cody Kessler, who was the Browns most efficient starter over the past two seasons, is a usable backup, but neither one appears to have the ceiling of a top 20 passer. 2017’s breakout season means this is the first time since 2007 the Jags don’t have a top-10 pick, which effectively disqualifies them from this year’s top quarterbacks. Barring a surprising overpay, Bortles’ potential replacement will have to come from the draft’s third tier of QBs.
Los Angeles Chargers
Philip Rivers has flirted with the idea of retirement in the past, but a $200,000 SUV seems to have assuaged his fears behind the Chargers’ move to LA. While he was recharged in a bounce-back 2017, he’s also 36 years old and nearing the end of a borderline Hall of Fame career. Los Angeles could upgrade its contingency plan from Geno Smith and Cardale Jones with a mid-round developmental quarterback, then allow him to sit and learn for two to three years until Rivers is ready to hand over the reins.
Or, the Chargers could target one even earlier. NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah reports the team is looking for Rivers’ successor in Round 2 this year.
Miami Dolphins
Ryan Tannehill got the Dolphins to the playoffs in 2016, but also shredded his knee doing so. He’s proven he can be a league-average quarterback when healthy, but there’s room for improvement — especially with Brock Osweiler serving as his backup. Tannehill is under contract for the next three seasons, but could be cut after 2019 with minimal dead cap repercussions. Adding a low-risk, high-reward quarterback this spring would give Miami two years to develop him before making a difficult decision.
New England Patriots
The consensus is the Patriots will look for Tom Brady’s heir in the draft, but questions remain on whether or not they’ll spend one of their two first-round picks (or both, in a trade up) to find their next passer or wait for a less heralded prospect in rounds two or three. Their typical tack has been to assess the available quarterbacks on Day 2 before making a move, a strategy that has produced successful passers half the time (Jimmy Garoppolo, Jacoby Brissett) and ... mixed results the other half (Ryan Mallett, Kevin O’Connor).
If New England resists the temptation to move up and grab a first- or second-tier quarterback, a guy like Lauletta could be the move. After all, Bill Belichick’s last FCS QB draft pick has yet to lose an NFL game as a starter.
New Orleans Saints
Drew Brees is under contract through 2019, at which point he’ll be 41 years old. While he hasn’t shown signs of slowing down yet, the future Hall of Famer will have to start thinking about retirement at some point. Meanwhile, his backups are Tom Savage, who was awful with the Texans, and Taysom Hill, whose biggest contributions as a pro have been on special teams. Adding a mid-round quarterback would give them an exit strategy with Brees and potentially upgrade their backup situation in the intervening years.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Part of the reason Ben Roethlisberger is able to stir up retirement stories each offseason is that he’s 36 years old and has taken a ton of damage over a 14-year career. He may not have many miles left in his engine, and Landry Jones hasn’t looked like an NFL starter in limited opportunities with the Steelers. Third-stringer Joshua Dobbs could make a positive impact as he grows in his second season, but another option wouldn’t hurt a team that would face major question marks should Big Ben suddenly hang up his cleats.
Washington
The good news is Alex Smith is now on the roster to take Kirk Cousins’ vacated snaps, and he’s signed through 2022. The bad news is he’ll be 34 next fall and working with a significantly worse supporting cast than the group that spurred his late-career leap in Kansas City. As steady as he’s been, Washington could look for a third-string option with higher upside than Browns’ refugee Kevin Hogan in this year’s draft.