Lamar Jackson is the only 1st-round QB Patriots worked out before the draft

Does Bill Belichick love the former Heisman winner? Or is this all a smokescreen?

The Patriots have two first-round picks and a need for a developmental quarterback behind Tom Brady. Yet, they’ve only worked out one passer likely to be taken in the first round this week. 2016 Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson is the only QB to make the trip to Foxborough in the lead up to the 2018 NFL Draft.

Jackson’s invite could mean one of two things. It could be a move that tips New England’s hand in terms of who it is targeting on Thursday night. Or, it could be a smokescreen intent on distracting other teams from the player Bill Belichick really wants, either through hoping a QB slides to the team’s first pick at No. 23, or downplaying the team’s desperation in trade negotiations for a higher-rated passer like Josh Rosen.

The team’s interest in Jackson doesn’t mean he’s the only QB to meet with the team. Potential Day 2 selections like Washington State’s Luke Falk, Western Kentucky’s Mike White, and Richmond’s Kyle Lauletta have all met with New England brass. But Jackson is easily the highest-profile player to visit Massachusetts, and it’s easy to see why the Patriots would target the Louisville standout.

Why Lamar Jackson makes sense for the Patriots

Of 2018’s probable first-round quarterbacks, Jackson is the most likely to be available when New England makes its first selection at No. 23 — though that’s no guarantee. Dan Kadar’s latest mock draft has four passers selected before the Louisville alum fills the Arizona Cardinals’ need for a franchise QB at No. 15. But if Jackson is still on the board after the Cardinals pick and no other needy teams trade up, odds are good the All-American could slide to the Pats.

That would be great news for Belichick, who has long scouted Jackson through his ties to the Louisville program. As Yahoo’s Charles Robinson points out, both Jackson and Tom Brady have run similar versions of an altered Erhardt-Perkins offensive system, and that familiarity would help ease the former Cardinal’s transition to the NFL. While New England would still allow the rookie a long lead-in time before being thrown to the wolves as a starter, that background would insulate the club should Brady abruptly reconsider his previous plans to play until age 45.

Though quarterback isn’t the biggest need on the Patriots’ roster, this team’s long list of 2018 picks will give Belichick several opportunities to fill holes as he sees fit. New England can grab Jackson at No. 23 and still find the offensive line, linebacker, and defensive back help the team needs before Day 3 thanks to five selections in the first 95 picks. It also gives the team the latitude to make a modest trade up to ensure it gets Jackson; the last time the Pats had two first-round picks they moved up from the 27th and 31st spots to make sure Belichick got his hands on Dont’a Hightower and Chandler Jones on Day 1.

If Jackson is really Belichick’s guy, he’ll be able to make similar moves to land him Thursday.

Why the Patriots could go in a different direction

The Patriots have plenty of draft capital, and while it may not be enough for them to overpay for a top-five pick — the range where at least three of this year’s top prospects appear destined to be selected — they could jump into the fray if a preferred passer begins to slide. Josh Rosen’s off-the-field “attitude” has given scouts a reason not to like him despite his outstanding physical attributes. If he makes it past the Bills at No. 12, there’s a chance New England would jump at the chance to send its two first-rounders and future considerations to a team in order to draft him. NESN’s Doug Kyed reported the team’s interest in the former UCLA passer last week.

The other concern is whether Jackson presents enough of an upgrade, from a potential standpoint, over probable Day 2 picks like Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph, Falk, and Lauletta. Belichick’s history of trading down in order to maximize value could lead the club to a less-heralded passer that won’t cost New England a premium pick. An early run at a position of need — for example, if a thin class of offensive tackles puts pressure on a team that needs to replace seven-year starter Nate Solder — could force the Pats to pivot knowing a deep crop of mid-round QBs are available.

That helps explain the due diligence the team has undertaken with its pre-draft meetings. The Patriots have met with all the previously listed quarterbacks but Rosen since the NFL Combine, as well as Princeton signal caller Chad Kanoff. By virtue of visits alone, the evidence points strongly to the club settling on a mid-round prospect.

Lauletta may be the most interesting candidate in that group. He earned praise for his leadership at Richmond, where he helped build the Spiders into one of the FCS’s most successful programs in his three seasons as a starter.

At 6’3 and 215 pounds he lacks prototypical NFL size and arm strength, but his accuracy and athleticism have made him a Day 2 talent. The Pats’ last Day 2 FCS quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo, worked out pretty well for them.

So does Jackson’s visit really mean anything?

It’s the Patriots, so ... not really. New England’s approach to the NFL Draft under Bill Belichick has been to be as inscrutable and unpredictable as possible. The only near-certainty from the team’s 2018 is that it will make a trade down at some point.

While Jackson was the team’s highest-profile visitor, he’s just one name on a long list of prospects at whom the Patriots have taken a longer look. If the 2016 Heisman winner falls to them in the first round, New England will be ready. If he doesn’t, and the price of moving up is too steep, Belichick will have a backup plan in place.

He always does.