UFC Brooklyn: Henry Cejudo vs. T.J. Dillashaw Toe-to-Toe Preview - A complete breakdown

Phil and David breakdown everything you need to know about Cejudo vs. Dillashaw for UFC Brooklyn, and everything you don’t about plastic snake metaphors.

Henry Cejudo vs. Killashaw, Billashaw, Dolla Dolla...Dillashaw (Author’s note: sorry guys) headlines UFC on ESPN+ 1 this January 19, 2019 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York.

One sentence summary:

David: Mettle Gear Solid

Phil: Cornball vs snake - superfight edition

Stats:

Record: Henry Cejudo 13-2 | T.J. Dillashaw 16-3

Odds: Henry Cejudo +175 | T.J. Dillashaw -210

History / Introduction to Both Fighters

David: For a few years, Dillashaw would come across as kind of a Malibu Benavidez: great fighter, solid contender, but probably not a champion in the near or distant future. A few subtle changes to his game, a ton of drama, and wins over Cody Garbrandt who dethroned Dominick Cruz later — it’s the kind of experience that would otherwise feel more extraordinary if it wasn’t for the circumstances involved in a fight that is tactically a lot of fun (I hope), but represents something almost sinister.

Phil: Tyler Jeffery Dillashaw is one of the most exciting champions on the UFC’s roster, sitting atop its most exciting division, and thus it seems a bit of a shame that he’s been a bit confined. The Ultimate Fighter? The rematch with Garbrandt? Now we’ve got this “superfight” with Henry Cejudo and while it’s a good, interesting fight between two incredible athletes, it does sometimes feel as though I’d rather just see him defending against his challengers in that division. Still, at the end of the day it’s a TJ Dillashaw fight, and therefore a must-see.

David: If Dillashaw’s status is a reflection of a life’s work, Cejudo’s status is a reflection of helpless officials, and people at the top like Dana White who preach Extremeness, and Loud Noises but when the paperwork slides across the table, the UFC is nothing more than HR culture on human growth hormones. None of this has to do with Cejudo. He’s been a great story, and a great presence. What he’s accomplished is nothing short of spectacular, however brief. But his presence feels like a reminder that what we lost in the fire (Demetrious Johnson), we have yet to find in the ashes (the future of flyweight).

Phil: Henry Cejudo has done two extraordinarily impressive things in his athletic career. Firstly he won the Olympics in freestyle wrestling in 2008, the youngest ever to do so in the US. Secondly, he beat the then-P4P #1 in the sport, Demetrious Johnson. I mean, sort of. I’m not sure that he actually won, but he certainly performed way, way better than he did the first time. So in some ways it’s feels a little disrespectful to underplay his chances. He’s still powerful, extremely durable, quick, and with a deep reservoir of ability in one of MMA’s best disciplines.

What’s at stake?

David: I don’t even know, to be honest. An entire vision hanging in the balance normally feels like a lot. For fighters like Ray Borg, things are literally hanging in the balance. And yet something feels formulaic about it all. Like it’s only a matter of time before Dillashaw’s division gets swallowed up by an energy drink sponsor who starts getting cheap on Dana.

Phil: The fate of the flyweight division, kinda? Dillashaw has been trumpeting about how he’s been sent down to end the weight class for the UFC. Meanwhile, Cejudo has taken the mantle of the defender of 125, to a somewhat limited extent: he’s also said that he’s going to go up to 135 for Dillashaw’s belt should he win, so take that with a grain of salt.

Where do they want it?

Phil: Dillashaw is both more and less than he’s advertised as being. He’s not really the kind of stance-switching dervish that Dominic Cruz or Max Holloway are, and instead has built a clever, odd game which largely lives in the changeup between a right hand (hook from southpaw, overhand from orthodox) and his left leg (lead leg, round kick or switch kick). Think of Dillashaw and it’s not really the dart punches or the stance changing combinations which characterize him, but more that image of him creeping steadily into range, hand high by his chin, probing for how to use that left kick to push someone into the right punch, or vice versa. Debatably certain useful elements of his game, like the Ludwig trademark tapping jab, have even started to drift out of his approach. However, beyond that he’s also astonishingly adaptable, able to adapt effectively to both Dominic Cruz and Cody Garbrandt, and an iron-clad takedown threat and scrambler.

David: The main difference between Dillashaw’s game now versus “back in the day” is that somewhere along the way he figured how to avoid sacrificing defense with his open stance seismic assault. I know this is just one example. But take the first massive exchange with Garbrandt in their rematch. The initial Cobra Kai incarnation of TJ probably would have backed up, or thrown arbitrary kicks. Granted, I don’t want to undersell who TJ used to be. But that first exchange was not just great defensive work, but a great understanding of fluidity. TJ backs up with his left shoulder protecting the left side of his face. His right hand held up in a classic earmuff/high guard defense. And then he drops Garbrandt. TJ’s work in that sequence reminds me of Connor Ruebusch’s piece on Marlon Starling several years ago. There’s nothing self-evident about the high guard as primarily defensive, or conservative (I’d make the really esoteric argument that NHL enforcer, Rick Rypien was good at this too: RIP). Rather, like any positioning — it’s a fluid, and interacts with sequences of violence that allow it to generate and suppress offense in any given situation. My long winded point? Dillashaw’s mind for violence is high level. He doesn’t just deploy a strategy against opponents. He deploys a structure. Structures are flexible, and capable of being changed whereas strategies are typically zero-sum: you have Plan A, and if that doesn’t work, you go to Plan B, etc.

Phil: With the one exception of that knee from Mighty Mouse, the one thing which has characterized Cejudo’s UFC run has been durability and physical strength. His ability to march straight into the clinch carried him through his early fights, and his ability to shrug off return fire allowed him to build a high-volume boxing game much faster than anyone had the right to expect. This then shifted into the long range, bladed approach he used against Wilson Reis, and was finally synthesized into a combination of the two approaches against Mighty Mouse in their second fight, where he could throw combinations from the outside, and then march into the clinch for his inside trip. There’s a lot to like about Cejudo’s game from an offensive perspective: he keeps a good pace, mixes up his strikes and has an underrated kicking game. However, it does feel as though much of his defense is purely down to his athletic abilities- he doesn’t move his head much, and instead is dependent on footspeed and straight up durability.

David: Cejudo’s development path has kind of zigged as much as it’s zagged. His boxing seemed to come alive against Benavidez and Reis; displaying a high level of versatility that felt like a reflection of his learning curve. Then it sort of retreated. Then it kind of opened back up. Essentially, what I think is happening here is that Cejudo is figuring out the mechanics of everything he needs to learn. Which isn’t as crazy as it sounds. His MMA career is still only six years old. Now that he’s learned the mechanics, he’s trying to get the rhythm down. I don’t think he was particularly close to winning that fight against DJ, but there was a tactical growth at play. Cejudo is still pretty darn good at capitalizing on raw scrambles. The takedown on DJ in the 2nd round of their rematch was a great example of Cejudo using calculated movement to explode into top control, and superior positioning. Which is a skill that will probably come in handy.

Insight from past fights?

David: I’ve been afraid to look back at past footage to find insight. Mainly because I feel there’s too much “dark matter”, if you will. There are a lot of things, whether strengths, weaknesses, and little things in between that I think each man can exploit. But given that I got the Cejudo-Johnson and Dillashaw-Garbrandt fights completely wrong, I’m not actually confident about anything.

Phil: The main takeaway which stands out from Cejudo’s second fight with Johnson is that while he had figured out how to deal with Johnson’s clinch, Cejudo still didn’t seem to be great at dealing with Mighty Mouse’s kicking offense, and he absorbed a lot of body and low kicks. Dillashaw is a genuinely excellent kicker, and one who is notably far more likely to draw Cejudo into a left head kick.

X-Factors

David: Can we just talk about how on-point the comments section is when it comes to describing these men as movie archetypes?

• Cody is like the classic jock meathead in an 80’s highschool movie villain. TJ is like the classic evil popular kid who’s dad is going to close the rec centre unless Cejudo beats him in the sport he’s good at 80’s highschool villain.
• I guess that makes him (Cejudo) the hero of an 80’s teen martial arts movie, who’s had an epiphany, during the boss fight, that all he needs to win is self belief.
• Remember the cliche popular jock bad guy in the movies. Always dragging their girlfriend around by the arm saying weird shit like, “Come on Sally, let’s get out of here before we catch loser from these losers.” A lot of them seemed to wear weight lifting gloves with polo shirts and a varsity jacket, chew with their mouth open… that kind of stuff. I feel like that is TJ.

Phil: Dillashaw looked absolutely terrible on the scales... but he made it. How much it took out of him is an open question.

Prognostication

David: I think the difference in this fight will be whether Cejudo’s speed stands out enough to throw Dillashaw off his rhythm. Dillashaw has dealt with handspeed before, but dealing with just a bunch of raw speed threatens wide (takedowns, punches, scrambles, etc) seems worth noting. Mainly because I continue to predict any fight involving one of these guys wrong, so naturally, I’m flipping a coin on this one and saying that the 80’s hero with great hair beats Dolla, Dolla Zabka. Henry Cejudo by Decision.

Phil: It seems like a rough style matchup for Cejudo. While he can ride his durability into exchanges in the pocket with Dillashaw, can he really outpace and overpower him there? At range, Dillashaw is a more dangerous kicker than Johnson, and a notably better defensive wrestler. Perhaps there’s a speed differential too—after all, Dillashaw has had issues with smaller, quicker fighters like Garbrandt and Dodson in the past. However, just on pure offensive capabilities and craft, it seems like Dillashaw’s fight to lose unless the weight cut has badly depleted him. TJ Dillashaw by unanimous decision.