Why the Warriors are better away from home this season
Golden State is 18-15 on the road - and only 18-19 at the Chase Center. Here’s a look at why that is.
If the Golden State Warriors end up missing the playoffs this season, there’s one main cause they can point to: Not being able to win at home.
It’s a curious trend, which hasn’t been the case in other recent seasons. Last year, the Warriors went 33-8 at the Chase Center in the regular season, and 4-2 in the playoffs. On the road, they were 11-30, and 2-4 in the playoffs. In 2021-22, their home record was 31-10, and their road record was 22-19, with only one playoff loss at home. In 2020-21, when they were a play-in team, they were still far better at home, going 25-11 in front of the home crowd and 14-22 away from SF.
This season, the Warriors’ point differential at home (+0.4) is worse than it is on the road (+2.8), even with the team suffering a 52-point blowout loss to the Boston Celtics. Getting blown out by 36 points at home by the New Orleans Pelicans balances that out. The Dubs score 118.8 points per game away from home, and 117.9 at Chase. They shoot about one more three-pointer per game at home and make them at a slightly lower rate, 37.5% to 37.8%. The team fouls more on the road and draws fewer fouls.
The only glaring difference in the stats is that the team gives up 11% more offensive rebounds at home than they do on the road. For a team with eight close losses at home, those extra possessions may have been crucial.
But the explanation might be simple: Draymond Green. The Warriors have had Green for 26 road games, where they’re 15-9 when he plays, and for 21 home games, where they’re 10-11. Realistically, he’s only played 20 home games, since he was ejected 100 seconds into their home loss against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
It could be the capsule explanation for a lot of what’s gone wrong for the team this year: They’re built around having Green to anchor the defense and work with Steph Curry on offense, especially when he’s being blitzed by opposing defenses. When they don’t have him for 25 games, that’s the difference between a team fighting for a six seed and a team desperately clinging to tenth place.
Green is still dealing with lower back soreness as the Warriors’ five-game road trip continues. But the team is going to need him at his best if they’re going to continue to play better away from home. Lucky for them, if they make the play-in, all those games will be on the road, too.