Kurtenbach: The Warriors bet big on Jonathan Kuminga. It must pay out this postseason

The Warriors will only go as far as Jonathan Kuminga can take them this postseason.

The matchups for Tuesday’s play-in tournament game between the Warriors and Kings are tantalizing.

Steph Curry against De’Aaron Fox. Draymond Green vs. Domantas Sabonis. Steve Kerr vs. Mike Brown.

But there’s one player for whom the other team cannot account.

And he just so happens to play the most important position in the game come the postseason.

Warriors wing Jonathan Kuminga’s 2023-24 season has been a roller coaster.

There was the pre-report, pre-haircut Kuminga, who was in and out of Kerr’s rotation and averaging 12 points per game, an inauspicious start to the campaign that culminated in a conspicuous absence late in a home loss to the Nuggets and a “loss of faith” in the head coach, as reported by the Athletic on Jan. 5.

Since then, Kuminga has been arguably the Warriors’ third most important player (behind Curry and Green), playing nearly 30 minutes per game and averaging 19 points per contest.

And while the hype around the 21-year-old has risen alongside the minutes and points, it’s still unclear if the Warriors can trust him as the team heads into this, his first postseason with a role.

But it’s not like the Warriors have much of a choice.

For all Curry and Green’s greatness, the Warriors will go as far as Kuminga can take them this postseason. He’s the X-factor, the game-changer, the present and the future.

The NBA playoffs are defined by two-way wings—players who can create for themselves and others at all three levels on offense and deny at all three levels on defense.

There aren’t many players with the size and athleticism to control an NBA playoff game.

Kuminga is certainly one.

And while, ironically, the Warriors have another option for that job — Andrew Wiggins, the leading wing on the 2022 championship team — he is more enigmatic than the kid from the Congo. Guessing if 2022 Wiggins will arrive for this postseason is a fool’s errand.

For what it’s worth, the Warriors have come to accept that Wiggins was a one-hit wonder. It’s better to keep expectations low. They’ll be happily surprised if he reprises the role, though.

In the meantime, they’ll need a wing, and Kuminga is the next-best man for the job.

But while Wiggins commits errors of omission — he floats on the court, and not in a good way — the young and energetic Kuminga commits errors of commission. He’s trying to do too much, which often leaves him failing to do what he needs to do for the Warriors to win.

Many of the issues that limited Kuminga’s role at the beginning of the season persist. They’ve shown themselves in the final weeks of the season.

But Kerr had no choice but to play Kuminga more in January and beyond because the team was in disarray and was lacking anyone who could reasonably be considered a No. 2.

He’s in the same spot heading into the postseason.

While Wiggins and Klay Thompson have been better — alongside Kuminga, they can form a No. 2 by committee, but that will only get the Warriors so far.

If this team is to do something special — like Kerr believes they can — it will be behind a star turn from Kuminga.

Of course, he could torpedo the season in his zeal to become a star. After all, the Warriors are in a single-elimination tournament for the next two games.

How Kuminga plays this postseason won’t just define the Warriors’ 2023-24 season; it’ll also likely define the seasons to come.

If Kuminga takes another step forward starting Tuesday—if he rebounds, plays elite defense, and is smart with the ball on offense (all things he has shown he can do but rarely does concurrently)—the Warriors could parlay that performance into a long-term bet on him.

If he, at 21, fails to impress — if he spends all game leaking out looking for transition dunks, if he spins on defense, and if he dribbles into collapsed lanes on offense — it’ll make it all the easier to move him this upcoming summer for someone who is more aligned with Curry and Green’s career timelines.

Is it fair to turn what might be a one-game postseason run into a referendum for a player this young?

Of course not.

But such is the Warriors’ challenge and the harsh reality of pro basketball. The Dubs can’t wait to find out what Kuminga might become.

There is no next year for the Warriors as we know them.

There is only the here and now — one game with an entire dynasty on the line.

And by some strange twist of fate, so much of that game rests on the broad shoulders of Kuminga.

How will the kid carry the burden?