Caitlin Clark fever impacts WNBA odds: 'Her skills remind me of a young Steph Curry'
The Indiana Fever rookie will bring unprecedented exposure to the WNBA, but just how big of a betting impact will she have? Sammy P spoke to an oddsmaker to find out.
As the Caitlin Clark hype train rolls toward the WNBA, everybody wants a piece.
Clark signed endorsement deals with the likes of Buick, Gatorade, Goldman Sachs, Hy-Vee, Nike, State Farm and Topps, while breaking basketball records at the University of Iowa — and her skyrocketing brand is showing zero signs of slowing down.
She even stole the show on "Saturday Night Live" for crying out loud.
Clark’s next chapter is professional basketball, where she’ll join an Indiana Fever squad that finished 13-27 a season ago. She’ll pair with fellow No. 1 overall pick Aliyah Boston (2023) with sights set on laying the foundation for the W’s next powerhouse.
Like all good things, though, it’ll take time.
Legendary Las Vegas bookmaker Robert Walker is probably the biggest women’s basketball fan who works in the betting racket. He cut his teeth at the Stardust and MGM back in the day, and currently directs the sportsbook operation at BetLeroy’s.
"I’m a bookmaker, but I’m a fan first," Walker told FOX Sports. "I remember when Diana Taurasi came into the league. There was certainly a buzz when she got drafted, but this is an entirely different conversation. The appetite to consume Clark is second to none.
"Nobody has grown the women’s game more than Caitlin Clark."
The league is already giving Clark and the Fever the Beatles treatment, as they’ll play 36 of their 40 regular-season games on national television.
No pressure.
However, Walker cautions those who believe Clark will come in right away and dominate the sport the way she dominated the Big Ten and the NCAA women’s tournament.
"There will be nights she’ll score 30 and others she’ll score eight," Walker said. "That’s life as a rookie. The competition is significantly stronger and players are bigger and faster across the board. I think Clark is a decent defender, but guarding Jewell Loyd and Kelsey Plum and Arike Ogunbowale is a different story.
"You also have to remember most WNBA rookies deal with the eventual burnout after a 30-game collegiate season, let alone a superstar who carried all that extra pressure to another deep Final Four run. Fatigue tends to kick in for everyone in that first year."
Reminder: the WNBA’s regular season begins on May 14.
I'm tired just thinking about that turnaround.
Walker estimates Clark is already three points better than the average WNBA player, but it’s difficult to price her true value to the betting line without a single game under her belt.
That said, there’s no ignoring Clark’s ceiling. Everybody knows about her scoring, but Walker gushes about her innate court vision and passing ability. He knows assists can be deceiving, too. How many times did Clark draw double or triple coverage, only to zip a pass to a wide-open Hawkeye teammate who missed a bunny?
"Her skills remind me of a young Steph Curry," Walker said. "The ball handling, the vision, the range out to 30 feet. We’ve never seen a player in the WNBA shoot like she can."
Clark is the current favorite to win Rookie of the Year (-600) and as low as 12/1 for MVP.
As for team goals, Indiana is probably thinking playoffs for the upcoming campaign. But in a league with two super teams — the Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty — the rebuilding Fever are understandably a few years away from going toe-to-toe with the league’s best.
Las Vegas is currently even money (+100) to win the WNBA championship at one American sportsbook, followed closely by New York (+230). Then there’s everybody else.
Seattle (+1000), Connecticut (+1200), Dallas (+2400), Phoenix (+2400) all have shorter odds than Indiana (+3300), followed by Atlanta (+4200), Minnesota (+4200), Chicago (+6500), Washington (+8500) and Los Angeles (+10000).
How many wins is fair?
"I would open [Indiana’s total] 20.5," Walker said. "You have to consider how they’ll bet you. The season hasn’t started yet and Indiana’s a fan favorite. The team will be better, though. Boston will improve in Year 2 and NaLyssa Smith missed 10 games last year.
"They’re still a middle-of-the-pack team with deficiencies. Asking Clark to carry Indiana to a WNBA championship is a more daunting task than winning a national title at Iowa. Las Vegas doesn’t have any holes and New York is a juggernaut.
"So yeah, I would open just north of 20. And I’m not moving that number either way until one of my sharp players makes a move. If somebody bets you ‘Over,’ you scoot the number up. The truth is, there are probably others waiting to come ‘Under’ 21.5.
"The money always tells the story."
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.