Jamal Murray's calf injury puts the Nuggets' title defense in doubt even if they survive the Lakers

Jamal Murray's latest injury is the Nuggets' worst-case scenario.

The Denver Nuggets hold a 3-1 series lead over the Los Angeles Lakers, and they may well advance off that fact alone, but Jamal Murray’s latest injury — the hero of Game 2 — puts a massive damper on the reigning champions achieving anything of note after.

On Sunday, DNVR’s Harrison Wind reported that Murray is officially questionable for Monday’s Game 5 with a left calf strain. Murray was seen grabbing at his leg late in Game 4, but he pushed through to the final whistle. Now, his status appears to be up in the air moving forward for a Denver team that could really use its second-best player, who has struggled mightily through four games.

Murray missed seven of the Nuggets’ last 10 regular-season games to heal from a variety of injuries he’d been battling all season. He played in just 59 of 82 possible games.

Nuggets injury news: Jamal Murray has a left calf strain. He’s officially listed as questionable for tomorrow’s Game 5.

— Harrison Wind (@HarrisonWind) April 28, 2024

Even before his latest injury, Murray has not nearly played up to par against Los Angeles thus far. The Denver point guard is shooting 31-of-95 (32 percent) from the field and just 5-of-24 from behind the 3-point line (20 percent). He has just one made 3-pointer in his last three games. Given how much time he’s missed, it would not be a stretch to say Murray likely hasn’t been in 100 percent rhythm.

Murray’s poor performance has clearly affected the rest of the Nuggets, who need him to be in top form to have any chance of winning consistently in the postseason. Denver has not led after the first quarter or first half in all four games against the Lakers and might have only been a few bounces away from a 2-2 tied series (or worse, for the Nuggets). Murray is not the sole culprit for the Nuggets’ lackadaisical play so far, but it hurts a ton to have your second-best player shooting so poorly on a team that already relies so heavily on its starting five.

In the wake of Murray’s injury, here’s the first question to unpack: Can the Lakers do it? Can they become the first team in NBA history to come back from a 3-0 series deficit? NBA teams with a 3-0 series lead are 151-0 all-time, so, historically, it’s extremely unlikely. It’s not impossible, per se, considering just how much LeBron James’ crew has outplayed Denver through four games despite the current deficit. But the Nuggets still have the best player in the world, Nikola Jokic, and a very talented core featuring Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

Odds are the Nuggets will find a way to eventually close the series out, be it Monday or later, even if it might be a lot harder. Only needing one win to do so is still a huge advantage.

The second question is where it gets much dicier: Can the Nuggets still repeat? Well… I’m not as confident in that at this moment. Depending on the severity of Murray’s injury, he might try to push through and play on Monday, or he could miss a week or more. It’s worth noting these often aren’t short-term injuries — the reeling Milwaukee Bucks are feeling the effect of Giannis Antetokounmpo going through a calf strain of his own.

A similar recovery timeline for Murray would be disastrous for the Nuggets down the line in these playoffs. Even if Murray were to heal well with the Nuggets still alive in the postseason, it seems apparent he’d need time to get back into top playoff form than Denver can give him, which is something that has already plagued the point guard. Plus, not only are the hungry Minnesota Timberwolves likely waiting in the next round — a formidable squad to beat without Murray’s scoring prowess — but any of the teams on the other side of the Western Conference bracket (Oklahoma City Thunder, Dallas Mavericks, Los Angeles Clippers) should all be able to take advantage of a less-than-healthy Murray, too, if Denver continues to advance.

At the time of publishing, the Nuggets still have the second-best odds to win this year’s title, according to oddsmakers with DraftKings, but they may not be accounting for a Murray injury just yet:

The Nuggets have the horses to repeat as champions. On paper, they have the NBA’s best starting five led by its best player. But the one thing that really couldn’t happen was a significant injury to any starters during the postseason. Denver relies far too much on its core five players for anyone to be less than 100 percent.

If Murray’s calf strain fits that description, the Nuggets are in trouble. Big trouble.