Splash Zone: Mariners at Orioles Series Preview

The Mariners travel to Baltimore to begin a long East Coast road trip.

The Mariners have done well to maintain their slim lead in the AL West, winning back-to-back series against the plucky A’s and Royals. They’ve lost just a single series over the last month of play and it feels like they’re doing just enough to earn these results. Now comes the hard part. The M’s begin a stretch of 17 straight games without an off day and head out on a long East Coast road trip that includes series against the Orioles and Yankees.

The Orioles surprised nearly everyone by winning 101 games and a very competitive AL East division title last year. Powered by the 2023 Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson and the 2022 Rookie of the Year runner-up Adley Rutschman, they have a number of young prospects who could win that award this year too. They made a huge trade this offseason to patch their roster’s biggest weakness, bringing in Corbin Burnes to lead their starting rotation. Oh, and they have a new owner in control of the organization who at least looks like he’s willing to invest more resources in the ballclub than the previous ownership group. Things are definitely looking up for Baltimore as it seems like they’re on the precipice of a long run of sustainable success.

Henderson and Rutschman are the headlining players in the O’s lineup since they were elite prospects who made good on all their promise. Jordan Westburn and Colton Cowser are this year’s rookies who are taking the league by storm and they still have a handful of prospects who have yet to make an impact in the big leagues, including Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo. Beyond all those youngsters who are stealing the spotlight, the real glue behind Baltimore’s lineup are the veterans who are steadily producing. Neither Ryan Mountcastle or Anthony Santander have hit 30 yet, but they’re elder statesmen compared to the rest of their lineup-mates, and they’re both succeeding as middle-of-the-order run producers. The most surprising contributor has been Ryan O’Hearn, the oldest member of their lineup at 30-years-old; he was plucked off the scrap heap last year and has compiled a .289/.334/.485 slash line since joining the organization.

Probable Pitchers

Updated Stuff+ Explainer

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

I had to go back to 2021 to find a season with a large enough sample for any of the data above to be relevant; that should tell you all you need to know about John Mean’s recent history. A shoulder injury wiped out half of his season in 2021 and then Tommy John surgery sidelined him for the majority of ‘22 and ‘23. Another forearm injury caused him to miss the first month of this season, but he’s finally healthy now and has made a pair of good starts for the Orioles. At his peak, Means was relying on a very effective straight changeup that comes in 10 mph slower than his fastball. He also has a pair of breaking balls that are above average as well. His fastball isn’t one of his better pitches and he can allow a lot of loud contact off his heater at times.

Dean Kremer has continued to improve year-over-year since his breakout in 2022. This year, his strikeout rate has reached 25.3% while maintaining a low-ish walk rate. He’s swapped in an effective splitter for his mediocre changeup which accounts for some of that improvement. The biggest problem he’s struggled with is a four-seam fastball that’s far too crushable. Opposing batters have already hit six home runs off the pitch and he’s allowed a whopping .770 expected SLG off the pitch. He has good carry on the pitch and locates it in areas that generally earn swings-and-misses, but when he misses his spot up in the zone, batters usually take advantage of it.

Burnes gives the Orioles a true frontline ace to lead their rotation this year. Since 2021, he’s ranked second in the majors with 16.5 fWAR, showing a valuable combination of dominance and durability. If there’s one thing to be worried about, it’s a strikeout rate that’s fallen each year since his breakout in ‘21; it has dropped from 35.6% that season to just 23.3% this year. His cutter, the foundation of all his success, has been a little more hittable this year, even if the pitch’s overall expected wOBA is still a fantastic .294. His trio of secondary offerings earn the majority of the swings-and-misses in his arsenal and he’s throwing his two breaking balls a little more often to make up for the drop in effectiveness of his cutter.

The Big Picture:

Here come the Astros. After sweeping the A’s in four games, Houston has now won five straight and seven of their last ten games. They’ve climbed to third place in the division and host the Brewers this weekend. On the other end of the spectrum, the Rangers snapped a five-game losing streak on Wednesday, salvaging a single win in their series against the Guardians. Texas will host the Angels this weekend.