Blue city's exodus continues for third straight year, but slower: 'People just feel trapped'

Many major cities that suffered pandemic-era population dips rebounded in 2023, census estimates show. But not Portland, which saw a third year of declining population.

Portland's exodus continued for a third year, though at a slower rate, according to new Census Bureau estimates, even as other metropolitan areas rebounded from pandemic-era population dips.

"There's a lot of concern," DHM Research Senior Vice President John Horvick previously told Fox News of the city's population losses. He said the most common reaction he sees from leaders and residents is, "What have we done to create a place that people don't want to be here anymore?"

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Oregon's largest city lost more than 4,000 residents between July 1, 2022 and 2023, according to the Census Bureau. That represents a 0.7% decrease, which is smaller than the prior year's 1.5% decline.

Myriad factors have been blamed for the City of Rose's three-year downturn.

Portland has the second-highest marginal tax rate in the country, prompting Gov. Tina Kotek to call for a moratorium on all new taxes late last year.

Livability concerns like homelessness and crime have fueled growing pessimism about the city's direction, with just 21% of surveyed residents saying Portland was on the right track in 2023, according to DHM Research. Another DHM poll from late last year revealed 56% of surveyed Portlanders would consider moving away if they could afford it.

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Fox News recently spoke with one family that moved from Portland to Idaho in 2021, propelled by rigid pandemic policies and often-destructive protests during the summer of 2020. Nick Kostenborder said becoming a parent opened his eyes to the problems in the City of Roses.

"You’re worried about someone else besides yourself. So you start to notice threats more," he said. "It's no longer charming to have the homeless guy asleep in front of the grocery store. Now it's like, all right, this actually might be dangerous."

Portland photographer Tara Faul, a homeschooling mother of four, said she has seriously looked for places to move to, but soaring interest rates and home prices have made it difficult.

"So I'm sure a lot of people just feel trapped," Faul said in January.

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Horvick said reactions to the city's population dips are mixed, and sometimes partisan. A portion of the left celebrates the news as "good riddance," he said, describing their attitude as, "'If you don't like what we've created here, we don't want you as our neighbor.'"

On the other end of the political spectrum, he said conservatives may point to the population losses as the "result of liberal policy."

"'These Democrats screwed it up and now people don't want to live there anymore.' There's that perspective as well," he said, adding that such sentiments are still a minority.

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Mostly, Horvick said, people are worried. Businesses wonder how they can recruit employees, and local leaders worry about a dwindling tax base.

"If our population declines, we can't fund services to the level people have come to expect," he said.

Not all northwest cities are following Portland's population decline.

Seattle, which faces similar livability issues, grew 0.8% in 2023. Vancouver, Washington, across the Columbia River from Portland, grew 1%. Many Oregon suburbs also saw even larger growth, with Happy Valley's population spiking 7.5% and Woodburn's population growing 6.4%.

Pat O’Connor, a regional economist for the Oregon Employment Department, told The Oregonian that much of the growth corresponds with an increase in commuting.

"A big part of why we’re seeing people move out to the suburbs or exurbs is housing," O’Connor told the paper. "Housing affordability is a big issue across the state, but it’s especially a challenge in the bigger cities like Portland."