‘Devastating’: Data guru warns Trump experiencing ‘absolute collapse now’ with key voting bloc ahead of midterms
With just six months before the midterm elections, CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten warned Monday that President Donald Trump is losing support among Republican-leaning independents.
Fifty-three percent of Republican-leaning independents are currently happy with Trump’s job performance, but that is a massive 20-point drop from the president’s first term, according to Enten.
“Down he goes, an absolute collapse now. Just 53% of independents who lean Republican now approve of the president of the United States. That’s very different from Republicans only. It was 83% at this point in term number one,” Enten said.
“It’s 83% now, but that’s a 20 point decline in his approval rating. Nearly at the 50% mark with a group that traditionally has very much been in the president’s camp.”
WATCH:
Trump’s absolutely collapsing with GOP leaning independents per WaPo & Pew polls.
He got ~91% of their vote in 2024. Just 53% approve now.
That 53% is down too from 73% approval he had with them in term 1 at this point.
House GOP struggling too on 2026 House ballot with them pic.twitter.com/h85uoPIcmY
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) May 4, 2026
Enten noted that during the 2024 presidential election, a whopping 91% of Republican-leaning independents backed Trump over the Democratic Party’s nominee, former Vice President Kamala Harris.
“John [Berman], I’m not that good at math, but I believe that is a 38 point drop,” Enten explained. “A 38 point drop from where he was in the 2024 election. As I said, this is a core group for Donald Trump. And they are waving adios amigos goodbye.
“We no longer support you, president of the United States. We are going in the other direction. We’re deciding to disapprove than approve. He’s just above 50% in a group that overwhelmingly supported him back in the 2024 election. That’s 18 months ago.”
In the 2024 race, this voter block backed Republican candidates by 83 points, but that has since dropped to 68 points.
“These are not numbers that Republicans win with,” Enten projected concerning the upcoming midterms.
“These are numbers Republicans lose with, so what right now is that collapsing support for President Trump among Republican-leaning independents absolutely making its way down ballot, making its way down ballot.”
“And if these numbers hold for the 2026 election, which is occurring in only a little bit about six months time, depending on how you exactly count six months, that would be absolutely devastating for Republicans.”
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