NBA Finals betting guide: Why Jalen Brunson at +140 is the best points leader value in the series
Now that the NBA Finals are set, and they start tomorrow, we should start looking at some of the future props that are available for the series. You can bet on virtually anything at any given time, but these individual playoff series props are some of the ones I think can be the most enjoyable if you don't necessarily want to do them game-to-game.
I think one of the best bets might be Jalen Brunson to be the points leader at +140. Victor Wembanyama of the Spurs is the current favorite, but I really think it is overpriced at -185. Brunson is averaging 26.9 points per game this postseason, compared to Wemby, who is averaging just 23.2. In fairness, the matchups Brunson has had were easier, and this should be a harder series for him.
I think the book isn't accounting for the Knicks selling out to stop Wemby whenever they can. Wembanyama has averaged 30.4 points per game against the Knicks in his career, with two 40-point games, so I do see some justification. Since joining the Knicks, Brunson has averaged 32.8 points per game, but that is also inflated because he had a 61-point game against them. Nonetheless, I'll back Brunson to be the leading scorer in the series.
If you watched Game 7, you've probably already bet on Julian Champagnie from the Spurs to win this. He was lethal in Game 7, and probably the reason that the Spurs won the game. He is averaging 2.6 threes in the postseason. OG Anunoby and Jalen Brunson are both averaging about 2.3 threes per game. Devin Vassell, of the Spurs, is at 2.3 himself.
I probably would prefer Vassell over Champagnie, but I can't give you a great reason other than he plays more minutes usually, and does seem to be more involved in the offense. However, Champagnie's role is to catch and shoot.
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A dark-horse long shot that I like is Karl-Anthony Towns. In the playoffs, Towns is averaging just 3.2 attempts, but is shooting at 48.9%. Towns isn't going to go to the basket. He is a soft center. He prefers to shoot, and keeping Wembanyama out closer to the arc means the rest of the Knicks have an easier time at the basket. I think Towns should station himself out there and knock it down if Wemby sinks. I like Towns at +3000.
This one is a bit shocking to me, but Wembanyama is -145. I think that is a great value for this series. He is averaging just 10.8 rebounds per game in the postseason, about the same as Towns. However, he isn't dealing with as physical a group of guys as he has in the past few series. If he gets anything fewer than 10 rebounds a game, it is a problem. He has played five games against the Knicks and is averaging 14.6 rebounds against them, with only one game of nine rebounds. Everything else has been 13 or more.
Josh Hart is the one Knicks player that I might consider betting on for the rebound leader. He flies in regularly to scoop up boards. I also think Towns will be boxing out Wemby, so Hart could get extra rebounds that way.
I don't particularly love these markets. However, there are three listed on DraftKings, and two of them involve De'Aaron Fox. Fox is a bit of a forgotten soldier on the Spurs because everyone else around him is so good. He can still rack up points, but that's not really his role in this offense. He has played against the Knicks twice on the Spurs and scored 26 in the first game, and just seven in the second. He is averaging 16 points compared to Mikal Bridges' 15 points. Both numbers are rounded. Bridges is a better value at +140 in my opinion.
OG Anunoby looks like the second-best scorer on the Knicks, and he is listed at -140 against Fox is an even safer bet in my opinion. Bridges is a bit hit or miss, but Anunoby can attack the basket, shoot threes, get to the free throw line, so he is beating you from different levels. I think this is a solid bet.
Best of luck however you choose to follow these, but my number one bet is definitely the Wembanyama -145 rebound leader bet.
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