Ryan Weathers' 0.66 day game ERA makes under 8.5 the smart bet in Yankees vs Twins matchup
It wasn't the most exciting day for me with baseball yesterday. I took the over and the St. Louis Cardinals on the moneyline as they took on the Chicago Cubs and split those plays. The good news is that the Cardinals were a plus-money play, so it wasn't a losing day. It has been that kind of baseball season for me so far, but each day gives an opportunity for a turnaround.
Today, we shift over to the American League for a different series that closes out as the Minnesota Twins take on the New York Yankees.
The Twins were one of those teams that was very surprising this season. Even though they've dropped below .500, they are still surprising. They are 43-47 for the year, which puts them on pace for about 80 wins this year. It is unlikely they will be able to win enough to make the postseason.
Their team has the second and third-ranked players in terms of trade value. This was supposed to be a rebuild year for the Twins, but they've had more success. Part of that is because Byron Buxton (the second-ranked player) has been phenomenal. He would be a great addition for a lot of teams.
Another big addition for teams would be today's starter, the third-ranked player, Joe Ryan. I wouldn't say that Ryan is going to lead your team as the starter through the postseason, but he absolutely could be a difference maker and a good possibility for being the second-best option in the rotation. For the season, Ryan is 5-5 with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP.
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I could see him using this start as an audition for most of the teams that are looking. Ryan has been phenomenal in day games with a 1.21 ERA in six starts. However, he has been worse on the road with a 4.09 road ERA. He is coming off of his two worst starts of the season, allowing 10 earned runs over his past 10 innings. Yankees hitters have been decent against them at .231 over 65 at-bats.
The Yankees are one of the best teams in baseball, and that was the expectation for this season. They are in the middle of a slump of sorts for them, but they are still 10 games over .500. Since June 18, they are 4-12. I fully expected them to start slipping after Aaron Judge went on the injured list, but they maintained their success until now. Perhaps this is just a blip in a long season. All teams go through something like this at some point, but when you're in it, the players and fans both start adding pressure.
Looking to stop the skid a bit for the Yankees today is Ryan Weathers. For the season, Weathers is 3-6 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. He has been better at home, throwing to a 3.74 ERA in Yankee Stadium. Even better news for the Yankees is that he has a 0.66 ERA during day games, having allowed just two earned runs over 27.1 innings. Weathers lasted just 1.2 innings in his last start, allowing two earned runs on seven hits. Twins hitters have very little experience against Weathers, getting three hits in 10 at-bats.
Anthony Volpe has been great against Ryan with a 6-for-12 with two extra-base hits. Byron Buxton is 2-for-2 against Weathers with a double. Volpe is a little bit better of a sample to go off of, but I don't think either is especially reliable in this situation. Volpe is also better at hitting during the day, so maybe consider him for 2+ total bases.
In today's game, the Yankees are the favorite, but the money is helping to move the line toward the Twins. I do think Ryan is the better pitcher, but this isn't the most ideal spot. Weathers is actually in a better spot when you consider all of his splits. I do think the best bet here is to take the under. Both of these starters have done well in day starts, and I think it continues here. Give me the under 8.5.
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