Joe Ryan's 2.85 ERA and Guardians mastery make Minnesota Twins the smart MLB bet tonight
I'm going to start with a bit of a rant about the ABS. I have a problem with .1% of the ball catching the zone and it being called a strike. I don't think that's in the spirit of the strike zone. We can see the amount of the ball that goes through the zone, so to me it needs to be 50% or more to be considered a strike. I think it rewards bad pitches if a minuscule amount hits the zone and it counts for a strike. I don't hate the concept of ABS, and like how quickly it works, but some of it is favorable to bad pitching. Luckily, we have a chance to see some very good pitching tonight between the Twins and Guardians.
The Minnesota Twins have some decisions to make soon. They are likely to be one of the teams that general managers spend time calling quite frequently in the next couple of weeks. For the year, they are 49-51, which is certainly better than what the majority of people would've expected from them this year. They could try and add pieces to make a run for the division, but that seems a bit unlikely - even if they only have to beat the White Sox and Guardians. They are only four games back in the division, which is definitely worth considering keeping players, but the rebuild could finish a lot sooner if they trade away some of their key pieces.
One guy who will attract a lot of calls is tonight's starter, Joe Ryan. He would also get the Twins a big return if they do decide to part with him. For the season, Ryan has posted a 2.85 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP with a 6-5 record. He also has accumulated 128 strikeouts in just 110.1 innings. He has been a front-of-the-rotation starter for the Twins and could be a huge piece for a playoff team. He has dominated the Guardians in the past, holding them to a .185 batting average over 92 at-bats against him.
The Cleveland Guardians are not going to be sellers, but don't expect this team to make a major play for anyone, either. That is just not how the franchise operates. However, what you should expect is that they will have players who make contact and have occasional power. They also may look for a low-cost, high upside starter. They are without their best player at the moment as well, so the biggest addition to their team may come in the form of Jose Ramirez's health.
The Guardians are typically a strong pitching team. They usually have one anchor in the rotation, and then a bunch of other guys who are good, but not necessarily great. It could probably be argued that today's starter, Tanner Bibee, is the anchor of the rotation this season. He is just 3-9 for a record, but has a solid 3.90 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. That WHIP indicates to me that he might be suffering from a bit of bad luck. Allowing 20 homers isn't exactly ideal, but he has been a good starter. Bibee has been worse at home with a 4.11 ERA in Cleveland. He did face the Twins at home once this year and was fantastic, going six innings and allowing just one solo homer.
Guardians rookie tosses ball into stands after making second out, costs team go-ahead run
I think that game from Bibee was a bit of an anomaly rather than the rule. However, Bibee has been good with a .194 batting average against him in 72 Twins at-bats. The under seems like it could be a good option with a 7.5 total, but I think you've got to get everything going right there. In six games this season, the teams have gone under 7.5 runs three times, so it is a 50/50. I don't really like those odds.
Instead, I like to take the more reliable guy, who I believe to be Ryan. The Twins have been good with him on the mound, and he has shown success against the Guardians in the past. It isn't that I expect Bibee to be an easy defeat here; I just think Ryan is a better pitcher and more locked in. Plus Bibee at home has struggled, and he is more susceptible to homers. Give me the Twins at -120.
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