Forecasters explain what caused Kazakhstan’s abnormal heat

Tengrinews.kz — Kazakhstan continues to suffer from the heat. Kazhydromet explained why air temperatures have reached extreme levels and what climate change has to do with it.
Why is it so hot in Kazakhstan
According to Kazhydromet, air temperatures in some regions of the country have already reached +40 to +46 degrees Celsius. The abnormal heat is the result of a combination of two factors: long-term climate change and the current synoptic situation. At the same time, it would be incorrect to say that heat waves are caused solely by global warming.
Kazhydromet notes that recent decades have been the hottest in the past 60 years of observations, while 2025 was the warmest year in the entire history of meteorological observations in the country.

“At present, the synoptic situation in much of Kazakhstan has been determined by the formation of a stable anticyclone, which prevented cloud development, led to intense surface heating and ensured, so to speak, the inflow of hot air masses from Central Asia and Iran into Kazakhstan. As a result, air temperatures in many regions reached +40 to +46 degrees,” said Tursyn Tillakarim, director of Kazhydromet’s research center.

Kazhydromet emphasized that global warming is not the direct cause of every individual heat episode, but it does raise the overall temperature background. Therefore, similar synoptic processes today lead to higher temperatures than they did several decades ago.
How much does this summer differ from the norm
According to Kazhydromet, June was extremely warm for the country’s central, southern and eastern regions. Western Kazakhstan, on the contrary, saw cooler weather. The average monthly air temperature in June exceeded the climatic norm by 1–3 degrees.

“In July 2026, the average monthly air temperature across most of Kazakhstan is expected to be 1–2 degrees above the climatic norm. However, on certain days, deviations in maximum daytime temperatures may be significantly greater and may reach up to 5 degrees. Speaking by region, the most pronounced heat will be observed in the southern regions, in Central Kazakhstan, and also in some areas of southeastern Kazakhstan,” Tursyn Tillakarim said.

Is the heat becoming the new normal
It is still premature to say that the current heat has become a record for all of Kazakhstan, forecasters noted. Climate records are set separately for each weather station after observation data are checked and processed.
At the same time, such cases are being recorded more and more often. According to forecasters, in 2025 temperature records were broken in Shymkent, Almaty, Turkestan, Taraz, Aktau, Kyzylorda and other cities. In May 2026, new temperature highs were recorded, including one that broke a record that had stood for more than 80 years. New records were also recorded in June.
What Kazhydromet recommends
During periods of extreme heat, specialists recommend limiting time spent in direct sunlight where possible, especially from 11 a.m. to 5 p.m. Physical activity during the daytime should also be reduced, and fire safety rules should be observed.
Forecasters also recommend following official forecasts and storm warnings in order to receive timely information about possible hazardous weather events.