Kazakhstan endures a record-hot July: 2026 may become the hottest year in history
Tengrinews.kz — July 2026 became the second-hottest July on record, while Kazakhstan was among the countries where average monthly temperatures reached record highs. Meanwhile, the likelihood that 2026 as a whole will become the hottest year ever recorded has risen sharply.
Kazakhstan among countries with a record-hot July
According to a report by Berkeley Earth, a climate research organization, around 8.5 percent of the Earth’s surface experienced its hottest July on record in July 2026. Record heat was recorded in Central Asia as well.
Record average monthly temperatures for July were registered in 32 countries, including Kazakhstan. Other countries on the list included France, Russia, the United States, China, Colombia, Kenya and Tanzania.
July became the second-hottest on record
The global average temperature in July was 1.56°C above the 1850–1900 level. By this measure, July 2026 was the second-hottest July since records began in 1850. Only July 2023 was hotter. However, taking statistical uncertainty into account, the figures for 2026 and 2024 were effectively comparable.
Illustration from berkeleyearth.org
July 2026 was also the first month of the current year in which the global temperature exceeded 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level.
Average land temperatures were 2.03°C above the 1850–1900 level, while ocean surface temperatures were 1.25°C higher.
El Niño continues to strengthen
One factor contributing to further increases in global temperatures is the strengthening El Niño. The Niño 3.4 index — a measure of sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean — has already risen to around +2.7°C. According to the analysis, this is the highest value ever recorded for this stage of the phenomenon’s development.
Forecasts indicate a possible peak of around +4°C in November 2026. If this scenario materializes, the current El Niño could become the strongest in the entire period of instrumental observations.
2026 could set an all-time temperature record
After seven months of observations, Berkeley Earth sharply revised its forecast. The probability that 2026 will become the hottest year on record is now estimated at around 69 percent. Just a month ago, that figure stood at only 12 percent. The probability of 2026 ranking second is estimated at around 30 percent.
The likelihood that the average annual temperature in 2026 will exceed 1.5°C above the 1850–1900 level is estimated at around 99 percent. The expected range is approximately 1.52–1.65°C.
At the same time, the warming effect of El Niño is likely to persist into 2027, according to the authors, as the phenomenon’s impact on global temperatures usually appears with a delay of several months.