Planet heating up: how El Niño could change weather in Kazakhstan
Tengrinews.kz – The El Niño climate phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean continues to intensify and may reach a very strong phase in the coming months. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts that the natural phenomenon will peak by the end of 2026, while its impact will last at least until February 2027. This may affect temperatures and precipitation patterns in many regions of the world.
Climate “engine” gains strength
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs when waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual. Changes in ocean temperature affect atmospheric circulation and can alter weather conditions far away from where the phenomenon originated.
This climate “engine” is now continuing to gain strength. According to the WMO, the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean in the key El Niño zone is already significantly above normal and continues to rise.
The Niño 3.4 index averaged 1.5 degrees above normal in May–July 2026, reached 2 degrees in July, and in some weeks from late July to mid-August, the deviation reached 2.2–2.6 degrees. Beneath the ocean surface, temperatures in some areas were more than 8 degrees above normal.
Almost 100 percent: WMO forecast is this clear for the first time
Forecasts by WMO global centers show an almost 100 percent probability that El Niño will persist until February 2027.
El Niño is expected to continue strengthening in the coming months, reach very strong intensity and peak closer to the end of 2026. Its climate impact may also continue into 2027.
What awaits the planet
A very strong El Niño can significantly change temperature and precipitation patterns in many parts of the world. The WMO warns of increased risks of extreme heat, droughts and heavy rainfall, which in some regions may lead to flooding.
At the same time, the strength of El Niño does not mean the consequences will be the same for all countries. Its impact depends on the region and season, as well as other climate factors, including processes in the Indian and Atlantic oceans.
Why the current El Niño is especially important
El Niño itself is not a new or human-caused phenomenon. Such cycles occur naturally roughly once every few years.
However, the current phenomenon is developing against the backdrop of an already very warm global ocean. Therefore, the natural climate cycle is overlapping with the overall trend of global warming and may intensify temperature extremes.
What this means for Kazakhstan
El Niño’s impact on Kazakhstan is not direct or clear-cut. Earlier, Tengrinews.kz discussed this issue with Kazhydromet specialists. According to their assessment, El Niño may affect general atmospheric circulation and increase the likelihood of climate anomalies, including abnormally warm periods, unstable precipitation patterns and isolated drought events. However, conclusions about specific weather in Kazakhstan cannot be made based on El Niño alone: it is also influenced by other atmospheric and climate processes.
Thus, the strengthening of the phenomenon does not mean Kazakhstan will necessarily face extreme heat or drought. It refers to an increased likelihood of certain scenarios, which must be assessed together with regional forecasts.