Venezuela awaits key ruling on Maduro recall

Venezuela's opposition learns Tuesday whether it can proceed with efforts to force a recall vote against President Nicolas Maduro, amid a dire economic crisis that is fueling warnings of unrest.

The National Electoral Council (CNE) is due to announce whether it has validated the 200,000 voter signatures needed to activate the next step in the process of removing the unpopular leftist leader.

The opposition decries the CNE as beholden to Maduro, but is hoping pressure from Venezuelans fed up with food shortages and mounting chaos will force the authorities to let the recall process move ahead.

If the CNE gives the green light, the opposition will then have to collect another four million signatures.

That would then force a recall referendum, in which Maduro's opponents would need more votes than he won with in 2013 -- around 7.5 million.

It is a lengthy bureaucratic tightrope, and the opposition is racing to get across it by January 10, the cutoff to trigger new elections.

After that date -- four years into the president's six-year term -- a successful recall vote would simply transfer power to Maduro's hand-picked vice president.

The opposition submitted 1.8 million signatures calling for Maduro to face a recall vote, 1.3 million of which were accepted by the CNE.

Signatories then had to show up at electoral offices last month to give their fingerprints and validate their identity, braving long lines and sweltering heat.

Opposition leaders said 326,000 signatories had been fingerprinted across the country during the five-day process -- well over the 200,000 needed.

The opposition coalition, the Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD), warns that Venezuela could explode into violence if the authorities refuse to allow a recall vote.

"Make way for peace," MUD executive secretary Jesus Torrealba urged electoral authorities at a press conference.

"Don't be part of the violent strategy of blocking the electoral exit."

- 'No turning back' -

Venezuela, home to the world's largest oil reserves, has been pushed to the brink of economic collapse by the plunge in global crude prices.

Deep in recession and facing inflation forecast to hit more than 700 percent this year, the country has gone into an economic tailspin, threatening Maduro and the socialist model launched by his late predecessor and mentor, Hugo Chavez.

The opposition launched the referendum push after winning legislative elections in December only to find its power stymied by a Supreme Court it condemns as a Maduro lapdog.

The fractious center-right coalition has not fared much better with its referendum drive.

It accuses the government of sabotaging the process through delays, obstacles, threats and retaliation against signatories.

Opposition leaders have called nationwide rallies for Wednesday to ratchet up the pressure on the government.

To move to the next phase, they need the CNE to give them the forms for the second petition drive.

Under Venezuelan law, they will then have just three days to collect nearly four million signatures. After that, the CNE will have 15 business days to count and validate them.

It is an arcane process, but the stakes are high.

"Everything depends on the CNE," said constitutional law expert Jose Ignacio Hernandez.

"If they arbitrarily delay the process, social conflict will increase," he told AFP.

A recent poll found 64 percent of Venezuelans would vote to remove Maduro.

The president, who accuses the opposition of fraud in its petition drive, argues it is logistically impossible to organize a referendum this year.

Sociologist Mercedes Pulido said Maduro has little choice.

"The referendum is a long and complicated process, but there's no turning back. It's the national will," she said.

"How will it play out? That all depends on the authorities."