Dollar at 450 tenge - experts explain what will happen next
Why the tenge has strengthened sharply
As recently as early September, the dollar held above 460 tenge, but the foreign currency lost its footing in a matter of days. Experts attributed the dollar's decline and the tenge's strengthening to several factors simultaneously: high oil prices, a favorable geopolitical situation, an influx of foreign capital, and high yields on tenge-denominated assets.
Zhanybek Aigazin, CEO of the Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC), identified the National Bank's high base rate—currently at 16.25 percent—as the primary reason for the tenge's appreciation.
"This allows investors to earn higher returns on tenge investments than on many dollar assets. Consequently, Kazakhstan remains attractive to foreign investors purchasing the country's government bonds."
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Zhanybek Aigazin
CEO of AERC
As noted by R-Finance financial advisor Arman Baiganov, oil prices have risen amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which is sustaining investor interest in Kazakhstani assets.
"Why is the tenge strengthening? First, oil prices have gone up. This is linked to geopolitics in the Middle East. The longer this escalation continues, the higher the probability of further weakness in the US dollar against world currencies," he explained.
Another factor is the decline in domestic demand for foreign currency. According to economist Eldar Shamsutdinov, consumer credit growth has slowed significantly: from an average of 32 percent in 2021–2024 to 3.1 percent in the first half of 2026. This has weakened demand for imports and, consequently, for the dollar.
Can the dollar drop even lower?
Economists concede that the dollar could fall below 450 tenge, though they are not yet prepared to forecast a decline to the 400 level.
Future exchange rate dynamics will depend on the geopolitical situation, oil prices, decisions by the National Bank and the US Federal Reserve, as well as capital flows and the dollar's performance on the global market.
"High oil prices, a wide interest rate differential, and demand from non-residents are supporting the tenge. A drop in oil prices, a faster easing of the National Bank's rate, or a strengthening dollar could reverse the trend. A return to 500 is not a mandatory scenario, nor can a move toward 400 be considered a mechanical continuation of the current trend."
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Eldar Shamsutdinov
Economist
What is the best way to keep savings right now?
There is no universal answer to this question. If a person's income and primary expenses are denominated in tenge, tenge-based instruments remain the logical choice. The dollar serves as a hedge against currency and external shocks.
"I suggest that it is better to keep savings in tenge. Firstly, deposit rates remain quite high and fully cover inflation. On the other hand, you should keep money in the currency in which you carry out your main spending, expenses, or business settlements. If you have foreign partners, then, of course, it is more profitable to use dollars, especially since the American currency has become cheaper now."
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Arman Baiganov
Financial Advisor, R-Finance
Years of devaluations have entrenched a habit among the population to perceive a stronger tenge as an opportunity to buy dollars at a lower price. This strategy worked for a long time and created a nearly one-sided expectation that the tenge must weaken in the long run.
"This mechanism was partially self-sustaining: credit supported imports, imports created demand for foreign currency, devaluation accelerated inflation, and inflation intensified the demand for the dollar. With a floating exchange rate, currency risk must be two-sided. The 450 level does not mean the dollar is 'cheap' and must inevitably return to higher levels," Eldar Shamsutdinov emphasized.
According to Zhanybek Aigazin, the tenge remains the more profitable option for holding savings right now. The main reason is the high base rate, which exceeds the inflation level.
"At the same time, risks remain: much will depend on how inflation changes. If price growth accelerates, it could also affect the size of the rate," he added.
How a strong tenge will affect prices
A strong tenge has both pros and cons: it benefits consumers and companies focused on the domestic market, but creates difficulties for exporters.
"Exchange rate changes are not immediately reflected on price tags. For example, a store might have purchased goods at the old rate. Additionally, the cost includes shipping, salaries, rent, taxes, and other expenses. The effect is visible more quickly in electronics, household appliances, cars, and other categories with a high share of direct imports," Eldar Shamsutdinov pointed out.
According to Arman Baiganov, a strong tenge also makes traveling abroad cheaper. Additionally, it benefits companies operating in the domestic market that purchase goods or raw materials in foreign currency.
For exporters, the situation is the opposite: their goods become more expensive for foreign buyers, and their foreign currency revenue yields fewer tenge after conversion.
"However, there is an important caveat: if the tenge strengthens, the prices of imported goods do not necessarily drop immediately. Businesses may maintain previous prices even if procurement costs have decreased. This is known as the 'ratchet effect'—prices rise quickly when the tenge weakens but are reluctant to fall when it strengthens," Aigazin emphasized.
Note:The ratchet effect (derived from the ratchet mechanism that only turns one way) is the tendency of economic indicators to rise easily but fail to return to previous levels when demand falls or a crisis occurs.
Dollar exchange rate outlook through the end of the year
Economists are hesitant to forecast an exact rate. According to Eldar Shamsutdinov, it is essential to monitor geopolitics, oil prices, National Bank and Fed interest rates, inflation expectations, and domestic tenge liquidity.
In Kazakhstan's draft national budget for 2027–2029, published by the Ministry of Finance, the calculated exchange rate is set at 480 tenge per dollar.
Economist Zhanybek Aigazin agrees with this assessment. In his view, the dollar exchange rate is likely to remain below 500 tenge.
As Arman Baiganov notes, much will depend on the situation in the Middle East. He believes that if the conflict persists and oil prices remain high, the tenge could strengthen further. However, if the situation stabilizes and oil prices drop, the dollar could rise again—to 470 tenge and above.
As a reminder: following daytime trading on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE), the weighted average dollar exchange rate stood at 450.79 tenge, down by 5.82 tenge.
Last Friday, September 4, Kazakhstan lowered its base rate again—this time to 16.25 percent per annum. This marks the third consecutive reduction, with the rate decreasing by a total of 1.75 percent.
Experts note that the rate cut itself is unlikely to trigger a sharp shift in the foreign exchange market. The decision was made amid slowing inflation and a decrease in public inflation expectations.