Scientists call emergence of new island in Caspian Sea a bad sign

Tengrinews.kz — A small new island has appeared in the northern part of the Caspian Sea near Kazakhstan’s Kulaly Island. Scientists consider its emergence a worrying sign of the continuing decline in the Caspian Sea’s water level, according to an article by Khaleej Times, citing Lada.kz.

The new landmass was discovered during a recent aerial survey. As the water level falls, the seabed is gradually becoming exposed, forming new islands and areas of dry land.

According to environmentalist and activist Daniyar Akimzhanov, this is not the only such feature near Kulaly Island. Several new islands have appeared in the area over the past four to five years.

Some are about one kilometer long and 200–300 meters wide. Vegetation has already appeared on some of them, while wild boars and wolves have also been spotted.

Specialists note, however, that not all of the new islands will necessarily remain. Their future depends on waves, wind, seabed topography and changes in the Caspian Sea level. Some areas may expand, connect to the mainland or become submerged again.

The decline in water levels is particularly noticeable in the shallow northern and northeastern parts of the Caspian Sea, including along Kazakhstan’s coastline.

According to observations by the Kazakh Research Institute of the Caspian Sea, the water level in this sector fell by around 2.45 meters between 1996 and 2025. At the monitoring station on Kulaly Island, the average water level in July 2026 stood at minus 29.42 meters, the lowest reading recorded during the observation period.

Scientists note that the northern Caspian is relatively shallow and has a gently sloping seabed. As a result, even a drop of several meters in water level can cause the shoreline to retreat significantly.

According to recent satellite studies, between 2016 and 2025 Kazakhstan’s coastline retreated by more than 20 kilometers in some areas of the northeastern Caspian.

Scientists attribute the decline in the Caspian Sea level not to a single cause but to a combination of climate change and human activity. The northern Caspian is considered particularly vulnerable. A further fall in water levels could expose large areas of seabed and significantly alter the coastline.

Scientists also note that changing water levels affect not only the geography of the Caspian Sea but also its ecosystem, altering the traditional habitats of animals, including the Caspian seal.

Changes in water levels could also affect sturgeon habitats, wetlands and other Caspian ecosystems. The shallowing of the Caspian Sea also poses risks to ports, shipping and fisheries.

Researchers warn that a 5–10 meter decline in the Caspian Sea level could seriously disrupt key ecosystems and threaten civilian and industrial infrastructure worth billions of dollars.