The Amphibian’s UFC 328 Picks
By Sebastian “The Amphibian” Fratto
Longshot
DraftKings is currently offering a “Winning Method” 30% bonus. I think the best play with this bonus is to use it on Jim Miller to win by submission. The current odds via DraftKings are +1100. Adding the 30% boost increases the odds to +1430.
In my opinion, Jim Miller’s easiest path to victory is by submitting the -250 favorite, Jared Gordon. Gordon, who is 2-2-1 over his last five fights, was last submitted in April 2022 by Grant Dawson, who is also on the UFC 328 card. Dawson and Miller have eerily similar submission stats, with Dawson winning by submission in 13 of his 23 wins and Miller winning by submission in 21 of his UFC-record 38 victories.
I think if Miller can avoid getting caught with a clean punch in round one, he will have multiple opportunities to find Gordon’s neck throughout the final two rounds.
The Amphibian recommends betting 0.25 units on this longshot wager.
Bummer
My next best bet was set to be a two-team parlay with Sean Brady as one of the legs. However, as many of you may know, there has been an extreme odds swing in favor of Joaquin Buckley. This has happened a few times recently and has resulted in bouts being canceled.
More often than not, a nagging injury gets leaked by someone with inside information, and the news reaches the public. Therefore, I will be staying away from this fight if it even happens. As of 5 p.m. ET, the fight is still on.
Straight Wager
My next best bet is Joshua Van at +136 (via DraftKings) over Tatsuro Taira. Van won the flyweight title over Alexandre Pantoja via injury. I don’t think he is getting enough credit for the skill set he brings into this fight with Taira.
In my opinion, this fight should be a pick’em. Therefore, I think there is value in getting Van at +136. I would bet one (1) unit on him.
Straight Wager
My final wager of the night is William Gomis, who is currently +140 via DraftKings.
Gomis, who has just one loss inside the UFC Octagon, opened at around +220 when the fight was announced. The line has moved heavily in his favor, which means there is now less value. However, I still think he gets the job done by decision.
I would bet one (1) unit on Gomis to win.
Last but not least, I expect a slow start to round one in the Cortes-Acosta vs. Volkov fight, with fireworks in the second round resulting in the fight staying under 2.5 total rounds at +175 (via DraftKings).
Both fighters have the ability to finish opponents early, and that is exactly what I think will happen after a cautious opening round. I would also place one (1) unit on this wager.
Main Event
Although I will not be betting the main event tonight, I think Sean Strickland obviously has to limit the number of times he is taken down by the grappling-heavy Khamzat Chimaev.
If Strickland can limit the takedowns to none — or just a few late in rounds where Chimaev doesn’t have enough time to inflict major damage or secure a submission — there is a chance Strickland can win by decision. I think a decision victory is his clearest path to success.
However, I think Chimaev gets it done by decision in a fight where he wins rounds through control more than heavy damage.
Either way, there is a lot of bad blood between these two, which makes me think anything can happen — and that’s one of the reasons MMA is such a great sport.
That’s all for now. Enjoy the fights — it should be a great night!
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