Holloway vs. Pettis: Lightning Round

UFC 206 will feature two of the best fighters in the 145-pound featherweight division. Tonight Anthony "Showtime" Pettis will take on Max "blessed" Holloway. The match up is intriguing from a technical standpoint, as both fighters have an elite arsenal of striking and submissions. Lets get right into some of the things to keep an eye on throughout the fight and a final prediction.

Max Holloway will have a 3-inch reach disadvantage to Pettis (69" to 72"), which can leave Holloway vulnerable to some counters. Holloway usually fights from a southpaw position and gauges his opponent’s distance with a paw-like right jab and oblique-kicks to his opponents lead leg. I expect Holloway to have success with his oblique-kicks due to his 2-inch leg reach advantage (42" to 40") and because Pettis does not check the leg kick regularly. Holloway tends to control the center of the octagon, and does a great job cutting of angles for his opponent. Look for Holloway to throw the right hook and either follow up with a straight left or clinch off the right hook, and work his clinch game. With Pettis missing weight by 3 pounds, and the possibility of having cardio issues in a 5-round fight, I expect Holloway to work his right-hook and clinch game. Holloway’s pressure will definitely be on full display during the fight. Watch for Holloway to come forward in the southpaw position and then switch stances and try to land heavy straight rights.

Holloway’s head movement and defense will be a major factor in the fight. Holloway tends to not utilize head-movement while he is on the defense; rather he uses his arms to block his-opponents offense. During the Lamas fight, When Lamas would go on the offense; Holloway would retreat on a straight line rather than moving his head and clearing Lamas’ attacks on angles. This could leave Holloway vulnerable to Pettis’ leg kicks. Lamas had success in the second round of the fight against Holloway because of the lack of head-movement.

For Anthony Pettis, this will only be his second fight in the featherweight division, and possibly his last. The weight-cut will likely have some impact on his cardio. During the Oliveira fight, Pettis lost the velocity and pop in his strikes by the end of round two. Pettis had his arms raised onto the shoulders of long-time coach Duke Roufus, hoping for an increase the blood flow and dissemination any lactic acid built up in his arms in between rounds 2 and 3. Pettis is a world-class striker, and I expect for him to have some great sequences throughout the early part of the fight. He faced a southpaw in Rafael Dos Anjos at UFC 185, and fought in the traditional orthodox stance, and I can see Pettis coming out in the orthodox stance again. I expect Pettis to unleash his rear-leg kick to the body and head, as this will likely be his strongest attack against Holloway. Pettis tends to circle the octagon and then throw his combinations. Pettis’ wrestling continues to improve with coach Izzy Martinez, but he continued to be taken down during his last fight with Charles Oliveira. Pettis has no problem defending and attacking from his back. Pettis has a great submission attack, and I expect him to attempt a guillotine at least once or twice during the fight.

Both men are very durable, as neither fighter has been knocked out in their respectable careers. Pettis can finish the fight with his strong guillotine choke, and his best chance is within the first 3 rounds. If it goes in the championship rounds, I don't see Pettis keeping up with Holloway’s relentless pressure.

I predict Holloway winning via unanimous decision and becoming the interim featherweight champion.