Expert: Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan discussed possibility of pause in escalations in Geneva in 2018
ArmInfo.In all probability, the main topic of discussion of Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev pause in escalations in 2018, when both countries will host presidential election, "said a researcher at the Institute of Economics of RAS Alexander Karavaev.
On October 16, following the results of the Geneva meeting with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan announced the absence of specific agreements on the resolution of the conflict, underscoring the agreement on measures to reduce tension, in order to avoid victims at the front line.
In this light, the expert notes serious alarmist expectations among observers in previous pre-election cycles. According to his forecasts, the next wave of escalation in 2018 is seen more clearly than the talks of an applied nature.
According to him, the statements of the Armenian President and the Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan speak about the forthcoming pause. In Geneva, the presidents agreed to take measures to intensify the talks, additional steps to reduce tension along the line of contact. At the same time, Karavayev found it difficult to predict the real duration of the calming effect from the meeting in Geneva.
The expert characterizes the official meetings of the presidents as part of a ritual that confirms the ability of the Minsk mediators to hold the situation in some kind of balance of the May 1994 truce. In this sense, Karavaev considers the periodic joint withdrawal of presidents as necessary for marks of symbolic milestones on the scale of the diplomatic process.
"These meetings also play a symbolic role, emphasizing that in principle, dialogue between countries is possible, while a real mechanism for stopping escalation in direct telephone conversations between the presidents of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia." In this light, diplomatic documents are more likely to see the fact held agreements, "- summed up the expert.