The problem of demography and aging population still remains one of the vital problems of Armenia
ArmInfo. The problem of demography and the rapidly aging population are still one of
Armenia's most pressing problems. This problem did not passed aside the smallest district of Armenia Vayots Dzor.
According to the head of the Vayotsdzor regional agency of the
national statistical service Arushan Ghazaryan, according to the
population census in 2011, 52.5 thousand people lived in the region,
whereas this year this figure is already 50.3 thousand. "The peak of
migration came for 2015-16. It was during these years that most
people left the region, today the rural population of the region is
32.7 thousand, and the urban population is 17.6 thousand. It is
noteworthy that not only external migration is observed in the
region, but also internal migration. According to my observations, if
earlier there was mass urbanization, then today there is a reverse
process. Many people move to the villages, settle down and, thanks to
employment in the agricultural sphere, provide their daily daily
bread, "Ghazaryan said.
At the same time he highlighted a very important problem of the
region, namely the problem of demography. According to him, due to
serious migration, today the natural increase in the population in
the region is at zero level, and the death rate exceeds the birth
rate, that is, the population of the region is rapidly aging. It is
noteworthy that a similar picture is observed in all regions of the
republic. Ghazaryan said that to date, 19.7% of the region's
population are children under 4 years old; 67.3% - from 4 to 65
years; and accordingly 13% of citizens are over 65 years old.
Meanwhile, Minister of Labor and Social Affairs Artem Asatryan
assured that today in his ministry is developing projects that will
seriously change the demographic situation in the country in the best
direction. "It's no secret that today the situation with demography
is of concern to us, but I want to emphasize that this issue is at
the center of our attention. To improve the situation, we need to
ensure the fulfillment of three important tasks: the first is the
increase in the birth rate in the republic because we have the
necessary potential and we just need to remove the obstacles, the
second is to ensure the mechanical growth of the population. "The
President of Armenia set before us the task of bringing the number of
people in the short term to 4 million, and today, projects are being
developed to fulfill the set goal, and the last is to improve the
quality of life of the population of Armenia. "I am deeply convinced
that the successful fulfillment of these three tasks will allow us to
change the demographic indicators in the country in the most serious
way," Asatryan said.
According to the Minister, today one child of childbearing age in
Armenia has 1.6 children, meanwhile, it is possible to bring this
figure from 2 to 2.2 children. Asatryan stated that, unfortunately,
today there is quite a troubling picture in the villages of Armenia,
and if earlier there were 2.3 children in the village for one woman
of childbearing age, today this figure fell to the level of 1.5.
Meanwhile, in the cities the situation is more encouraging, the
minister is convinced, since before if one child had 1.6 children,
today this figure is 1.65 and there is a small positive dynamics.
Asatryan is convinced that if the appropriate favorable conditions
are created in the regions-namely, jobs, constant income, then it is
possible to improve the indicators by 50%. "One of the projects that
will contribute to the increase in the birth rate is the provision of
affordable housing for young families, another way, the project of
repatriation of our citizens to their homeland will ensure the
necessary population growth," the minister said. But, unfortunately,
he could not explain how the state intends to return those who have
already left the republic, in the majority of cases because of social
problems, citizens.
At the same time, the minister assured that one of the most important
factors in stimulating the birth rate is the availability of work,
stable incomes and the possibility of caring for the child. According
to him, one of the steps in this direction is a bill on subsidizing
the state money for a nanny, which, if approved by the parliament,
will enter into force on January 1, 2018 and according to which, the
state will pay up to 55 a month to those who want to return to work
thousand AMD, instead of the current 18 thousand. "We will also carry
out the certification of each region, city, community, which will
identify the existing problems and outline their possible solutions
as quickly as possible." We are also concerned about the problem of
reproduction, as according to the indicators, the birth of the first
child is acute in Armenia today over many years trying to overcome
the problem of infertility. If we can solve this issue, we can
increase the birthrate by several tens of thousands, "the Minister
said.
Meanwhile, a visit to a number of Vayots Dzor communities showed that
the most acute problem of these villages today is the lack of normal
communication. The villagers have to spend for this 3-5 km of the
road from 40 minutes to one hour. So the people of the community of
Ger assured that the lack of normal roads creates for them serious
obstacles in terms of selling their own products, as the cost of
goods increases several times because of the increase in the cost of
its delivery to the city. A similar problem was in Zedea's community.
Another problem voiced by community residents in the Vayots Dzor Marz
is the issue of preschool education, employment of children, the need
to go to a neighboring community to high school students to attend
high school. So Hasmik Ghazaryan, a resident of Zedea community, told
that she decided to leave the city of Yerevan in the late 80's with
her parents, because of difficult social conditions. "I got
acquainted with my future husband here in Zedea and they came here
with my family from Azerbaijan's Nakhijevan in 1988. You know, then
there were anti-Armenian sentiments in Azerbaijan, it was not safe to
stay there, we have three children. The problem of communication is
acute, as high school students are forced to go to the city of Vayk
in high school, in the winter it is very difficult, because the roads
are not enough to sweep, so not every transport is able to get here.
And on foot to send your child the same unsafe but the children are
very tired, and the closure of our school, where only 11 students,
will lead to the extinction of the village, since neither family will
agree to live where there is not even elementary school, and
naturally they will prefer to leave, "Hasmik said.
The conversation with the community residents revealed one important
problem, namely, the lack of public confidence in the authorities,
the sense of uselessness when a person is left alone with his own
problems, and until the authorities solve this important problem,
serious demographic changes are not expected.
Note, recently the Institute of Philosophy, Sociology and Law of the
National Academy of Sciences with the support of the Armenian
Sociological Association published a monograph "Migration and
Depopulation in Armenia." The authors of the monograph are the
director of the institute, academician Gevorg POGHOSYAN and his
colleagues Irina ARAKELIAN and Vladimir OSIPOV. In an interview with
the newspaper "Golos Armenii" Pogosyan noted that the outflow of the
population from Armenia is an extremely stable process. "According to
our forecasts, coinciding with the forecasts of the UN, the
population of Armenia by 2050 under the optimistic scenario will be
2.7 million people, and under the pessimistic scenario - 1.5 million.
It is clear that migration as a phenomenon is characteristic of the
whole world, moreover, the world developed through migration. It's
another matter when in a given country migration takes a threatening
character when it comes to the situation that scientists describe as
depopulation, "the scientist said. As the main causes of
depopulation, Poghosyan called the fall in the birth rate, the aging
of the population and the third - its outflow. "In Armenia, over the
past 25 years, the birth rate has fallen by half. If in the Soviet
period 75-80 thousand children were born in Armenia every year, now
this figure is 30-35 thousand. This is a sign of depopulation. The
second sign is the aging of the population. When the proportion of
people older than 60 starts to grow, this is the demographic
indicator of the country is aging. In Armenia, this figure is 12.9%.
And the third cause of depopulation is the outflow of population.
Over the last quarter century our population has decreased by 33%,
"the scientist said.