International Crisis Group Analyst: Armenia will have problems with  integration of Artsakh refugees if it does not find donors 

ArmInfo. Armenia Struggles to Cope with Exodus from Nagorno-Karabakh Armenia is having problems 

integrating over 100,000 refugees who fled Nagorno-Karabakh when Azerbaijan took control of the enclave in September 2023. Olesya Vartanyan Senior Analyst in the South Caucasus at the International 

Crisis Group said in her commentary.

Thus, the analyst who focuses on the conflict regions of Abkhazia, 

Nagorno-Karabakh and South Ossetia, notes, that Yerevan has tried to 

be generous, but it lacks funds and a long-term plan, leaving the 

displaced people exposed and facing an uncertain future. 

The analyst recalls that  Azerbaijan's offensive on 19 September led 

to the exodus of almost the entire population of Nagorno-Karabakh in 

just a few days. 

" As Azerbaijani troops advanced, the de facto authorities, who had 

governed the region with Armenia's support since seizing it from 

Azerbaijan in the 1990s, quickly surrendered. Thus ended a long, 

violent struggle for control of Nagorno-Karabakh that fuelled three 

wars in as many decades and left a legacy of mass displacement of 

both ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijanis. Over 100,000 people have had 

to flee to Armenia since September 2023."

"Armenia has been as generous as its resources allow with 

Nagorno-Karabakh's former residents.  The government registered 

arriving refugees and helped them find shelter in population centres 

rather than guiding them into refugee camps. All are eligible for 

Armenian citizenship, of which some have already availed themselves. 

Every adult has received a one-off payment of $250, followed by a 

$185 monthly stipend - the minimum wage in Armenia where people on 

average earned $668 per month in 2023 - to cover rent and basic 

needs. In towns throughout the country, refugees have been getting by 

on this support, stretching it by banding together to live with 

several people under one roof. But the aid has strained the state 

budget, and it is not clear how long Yerevan can sustain the 

payments. It is a huge burden for a country of some three million 

people, a quarter of whom were already living below the official 

poverty line. At least one in every 30 people now living in Armenia 

is a refugee from Nagorno-Karabakh - as many as the inhabitants of 

the country's second-largest city, Gyumri. Unless the government gets 

more funds to help it cover refugee-related costs, poverty and social 

frictions look set to mount. "You will start seeing real problems in 

three to four weeks if the government starts lacking money to cover 

the bills", said an international expert who came to Armenia in the 

wake of the crisis, warning of a surge in homelessness. Armenians' 

solidarity with refugees has been remarkable to date, but fatigue 

could kick in. Resentment may take root among locals if they see 

refugees being helped into jobs and housing that others might 

struggle to find, or bringing down wages, local officials and 

international experts said. Inadequate support for refugees now could 

lead to even costlier long-term social problems. "The local 

government would have to hire more social workers", the head of an 

international humanitarian organisation said. "The same is true for 

police, doctors and teachers", she notes.

" The European Union pledged over EUR17 million ($18 million) in 

budgetary support for Armenia's cash payments to refugees, but 

disbursement of the funds has been delayed, seemingly by bureaucratic 

hurdles. International and local organisations, including UN agencies 

and the International Committee of the Red Cross, have also provided 

humanitarian support, but they say they are having trouble raising 

funds so that they can give more. In October 2023, the UN High 

Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimated that the government would 

need $97 million to cover refugees' essential needs through the end 

of March. Together, 60 international and local organisations have 

collected 47 per cent of this amount (which is separate from the EU's 

pledge).  To bridge the gap, Armenia has taken out a loan from the 

World Bank, and it is sounding out other international lenders as 

well. Armenian diaspora organisations from Europe and the U.S. are 

preparing to help the government organise a conference to raise 

additional funds from states and private donors, but no date has yet 

been set. To the extent Yerevan seeks funding for more than cash 

assistance and humanitarian aid, however, it will need to make clear 

what precisely it is asking donors to support. Since October, the 

government has been working on coordinating several programs to 

support longer-term integration, but it has announced no overall plan 

and offered no cost estimate. Making Housing a Focus The government 

says housing will be the main focus of its efforts. In September, as 

Karabakh residents flowed into Armenia, it moved fast to register and 

dispatch them to parts of the country where local authorities had 

housing available.  But the vast majority of refugees gravitated 

toward the capital, despite the higher rents, thinking it would be 

easier to find work there. Almost half settled in Yerevan and another 

30 per cent in the vicinity, where local authorities say there are 

far more refugees than available housing. In the town of Masis, a 

twenty-minute drive from the capital, many local officials had to 

temporarily vacate their offices so that refugees could move in. 

Kindergartens, libraries and schools have been repurposed as living 

spaces. Locals estimate that 11,500 people - almost 10 per cent of 

Nagorno- Karabakh's previous Armenian population - have arrived in 

Masis, nearly doubling the number of residents. The former de facto 

Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh flag now flies beside Armenia's over the 

town hall", she stresses.

As the  Senior Analyst  notes "the entrance to the Lachin corridor, 

the only road that connects Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia. Over 100,000 

displaced Armenians fled this way last year. Now, it is barely used." 

"There are cheaper options in sparsely populated regions - though few 

refugees want them.  Vardenis, which borders Azerbaijan, is cheapest 

of all, with a village house ready to move into going for some 

$5,000. But one reason the prices are low is that, over the past 

three years, it has become the most dangerous area along the border, 

with frequent skirmishes between the Armenian and Azerbaijani 

militaries. Many residents have already left, and many more are eager 

to sell their homes and relocate. Among people from Nagorno-Karabakh, 

still suffering from the trauma of forced displacement, Vardenis is 

hardly a draw. "Refugees would get off the buses halfway when they 

learned the government was sending them to Vardenis", said a town 

official.  "No one wanted to live at gunpoint again". Some 800 

Karabakh Armenians have arrived in the region, only a tenth of the 

number local officials had made plans for. "These are the poorest, 

who had no choice", a humanitarian worker said. 

"In January, Yerevan began a special support project offering to 

reimburse companies paying refugee salaries for a certain period, in 

the hope that the firms would extend this arrangement into longer 

regular contracts. Over 5,000 Karabakh Armenians started working in 

their first six months in Armenia, official data shows. "The main 

question is how many will retain these jobs", an Armenian businessman 

said. "I bet the numbers will be small". Some locals organised job 

fairs for Karabakh Armenians. At one of these events, held at 

Yerevan's main university, company representatives met with a group 

of job seekers, predominantly men - a scene consistent with the 

gender employment gap among this population. 

"But it will be a long road for all the displaced people who want 

jobs to find them. At best, it will take an estimated ten to twenty 

years, according to an independent economists' report for the 

government that Crisis Group has seen. That could undo some of the 

progress Armenia has made in tackling joblessness as the economy has 

grown in the past five years, raising unemployment from its current 

level of 11 per cent to 15-17 per cent. The above-referenced report 

calls for an ambitious plan to create up to 25,000 new jobs and 

reskill up to 4,000 people in sectors such as manufacturing, 

agriculture, construction and retail. Without these measures, it 

suggests, thousands of displaced families may be compelled to flee 

once again. (Russia is a major destination for Armenian workers who 

send remittances home and over 6,400 people from Karabakh have 

already moved there, Armenian officials say.) Some foreign 

development experts agree on the need to think big. They have 

recommended to the government tax breaks and special projects to 

attract job-generating investments in construction and 

infrastructure. A Western development agency representative suggested 

that Armenian diaspora groups in the West could act as liaisons to 

get major U.S. and European construction and other companies to 

establish offices in those Armenian regions hosting significant 

refugee populations. In the past, successful Armenian emigres have 

invested in Armenia, helping generate jobs and provide communities an 

economic boost, especially in places distant from the capital. The 

government should look for ways to collaborate again with the 

diaspora in support of the new wave of refugees. "

" The new arrivals include 30,000 children and 18,000 people aged 

over 65, according to the UNHCR. There are also several thousand 

disabled people. Men with missing limbs, from war injuries and 

landmine explosions, are a not-infrequent sight in areas where 

Karabakh refugees have moved." "The Need for a Plan Armenia absorbed 

a wave of refugees from the Karabakh fighting in 2020, but this 

challenge is far bigger. As it struggles to pull together the strands 

of an integration plan, Yerevan is under pressure - not only from 

Karabakh Armenians, who wonder what the future holds for them, but 

also from the citizenry and potential donors. A fully articulated 

plan must address housing and employment, make full partners of local 

authorities who will be implementing its directives, and consider the 

impact that it will have on the locales where it will be put into 

practice. In some places, bolstering service providers such as 

schools, police and hospitals can help meet the needs of recently 

arrived refugees, but well-designed programs would seek to boost 

support to entire communities - not just new arrivals, Meanwhile, 

refugees, grappling with their recent loss, are still coming to grips 

with a new and challenging reality,"  Vartanyan notes.