Expert: The voter will not orient due to promises as much as due to how much was done or missed
ArmInfo.The ruling Republican Party presented a pre-election program, in fact, devoid of quantitative specifics, it is without numbers and facts. The reason for this is that the authorities are well aware that the voter, when making a choice, will be guided not so much by the predicted numbers or promises of growth as on the basis of what was done or missed by the RPA during its reign. Atom Margaryan, Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Theory of ASEU, Candidate of Economic Sciences, stated this on March 13 in Yerevan, commenting on the presented programs of political forces participating in the pre-electoral parliamentary race.
According to expert, the RPA program echoes the previous government's program of activities, which is "not entirely logical". "The program of activities should flow from the electoral program, and not vice versa", he said, but this, he said, is a subjective factor, it has a completely logical explanation, since the pre- electoral emphasis is placed on the personality of the prime minister as a "charismatic leader". The focus is the same - investment, stimulating the business environment, fighting corruption and reducing poverty in the country. "The program is quite realistic. Not putting an artificially high bar and promising to provide 3.2% growth in 2017, 4-5% in 2018, it is quite possible to achieve growth of 5-6% or more by the end of the five-year plan", he said.
According to Margaryan, the future government will be a coalition including RPA and ARFD. Currently, the ARF program is not enlightened by numbers. The only thing the expert stressed is the bringing the minimum amount of pensions into line with the minimum consumption basket.
In contrast, the programs of "Free Democrats" and "Tsarukyan" Bloc have specifics in the context of numbers and expectations. "They both promise 6.5-7% economy growth in 2017. I consider the given bar to be a hard-to-reach", he stated. According to the expert, a 0.2% growth in 2016 indicates a period of recession or stagnation in the Armenian economy during the past year. Under these conditions, when there is no prospect of lifting sanctions from Russia in the foreseeable future and a complete lifting of sanctions from Iran, and lack of expectations in terms of appreciation of oil prices, in an attempt to ensure a 6-7% growth in trying to attract hard-to-reach and expensive credit funds for Armenia only inexpedient, but also dangerous. At the same time, the economic component of the "Free Democrats" program, in his opinion, will become a cornerstone for the future government, and the position of the "Tsarukyan" Bloc on the release of SMEs from taxation having turnover up to 60 million for 3 years deserves attention and application.
In general, as Margaryan noted, despite the long-term program modifications, the job is an ungrateful one because of the negative external shocks and high level of turbulence in global economy, the "Free Democrats" and "Elk" Bloc programs include not only short-term and mid-term development. "Elk", for example, is highlighted by the proposed long-term institutional changes", the expert said. The programs of the "Elk" bloc, however, the economist believes are high-tech. "It provides a clear program for the development of the country's military-industrial complex and it is no coincidence that its key point is to raise the salaries of servicemen", he noted.
"The Armenian Revival" proposes to set a maximum bar for the provision of agricultural loans in 10% of which 5% will be compensated by the state budget, which is also somewhat realistic", Margaryan said. But, at the same time, in his opinion, having offered to freeze the accumulative pension system, it is necessary to take into account that we are deprived of the resource for subsidizing such loans.
What about the Congress-People's Party of Armenia and ORO, as the expert considers, ORO is viewing the ways of economic development in details by increasing the level of education. The Congress-People's Party of Armenia program of friendly neighboring and of good will which proposes to 55% of saving the military expenditures in order to direct them to new jobs. "But the question is how to do it. Since at the moment it is difficult and almost impossible", he said.
To note, Sunday, March 5, 2017, in accordance with national legislation in the Republic of Armenia, a campaign began. It will last 26 days. April 1, 2017 in the Republic of Armenia is a day of silence, and on April 2 the Parliamentary elections will be held. 9 political forces participate in elections.