Forecast: The alternation of diplomacy with military trials in order to hold negotiations on the Karabakh agreements is inevitable
ArmInfo.As long as the parties to the Karabakh conflict are allowed to check each other for strength on the lines of contact, the diplomatic round on Karabakh intends to alternate with becoming an additional tool to persuade a negotiating partner and new military charges. Russian analyst Sergei Markedonov expressed such an opinion to ArmInfo.
The second half of May was characterized by a significant increase in tension on the Karabakh-Azerbaijan contact line. The Azerbaijani military controlled missile damaged the air defense missile system "Osa" of the NKR Defense Army. On May 18, the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs stated in their statement that on May 15 the Azerbaijani Armed Forces fired a missile through the contact line of the sides. On May 16 and 17, the Armenian military responded with mortar fire.
"It is interesting that Baku does not seek to silence the fact of shelling on May 15 from its side, trying to legitimize it with the threat that the Armenian "Osa" could represent. At the same time, Azerbaijan traditionally actualizes the problem of intolerance of the status quo, the need for de-occupation, dismissing the issue on the referendum on determining the status of Nagorno-Karabakh," he said.
In the opinion of the analyst, thus, the next aggravation of the situation of fundamental novelty did not bring. And the dynamic status quo, in which the negotiation process is replaced by a new escalation, without slipping into a full-scale war, remains. At the same time, he notes that after May 15-17, the negotiating pace was shot down, and according to Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Maria Zakharova, "it is not necessary to announce meetings and continue contacts."
Noting the regular nature of the escalation of diplomatic rounds, Markedonov stressed the impossibility of ordering the peace process in such an alternation. According to him, any new aggravation takes time to return to dialogue, however, the new dialogue round has no further continuation, and it is impossible to consolidate existing agreements with something more than a promise of a new meeting.
The reason for such fluctuations Markedonov justifies by the unwillingness of the parties to serious compromises, assessing their appeal to the updated Madrid principles as unimportant. In this light, the analyst notes that the regional visit of the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, announced in June-early July, is likely to take place, unless there is another sharp escalation.