Timothy Ash: The big call on Ukraine

I think most people now are trying to figure out how to play Ukrainian hard currency debt – it has come a huge distance in such a short space of time, which really does reflect the generosity of the deal announced last week for bondholders. Just to recap, bonds have rallied from 40 cents back in the spring when plans to “restructure” were first mooted, to 55 cents just before the deal announcement last week, and now to 75 cents. I don’t think that this is particularly a call on the Ukraine reform story, simply that this deal was much better than expected for bondholders