Mariners-Astros ALDS Betting Preview
Betting analysis of the MLB American League Division Series between the five-seed Mariners and one-seed Astros.
Game 1 of the American League Division Series kicks off Tuesday as the Houston Astros host the Seattle Mariners at Minute Maid Park in Houston.
Here are SI Sportsbook's odds for the ALDS: Mariners (+180) | Astros (-250)
These two teams are no strangers to each other, and Houston enters this series as the AL West champions, and the Mariners enter via a Wild Card berth after finishing 16 games behind the Astros for the regular season.
The Astros and the Mariners faced off 19 times this year, with Houston logging 12 wins.
Ace Justin Verlander, the favorite for the AL Cy Young, gets the start at home for Houston. Verlander pitched to a 1.75 ERA, posted a 0.83 WHIP, and allowed only a .186 opponent batting average this season while recording 18 wins.
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After Verlander, Houston has incredible depth at starting pitchers, including Framber Valdes, who just set a major league record for consecutive quality starts, Lance McCullers, Jose Urquidy, and Cristian Javier. Hunter Brown could factor into the mix, as well. Houston's starters combined for the best ERA in the American League (2.95).
Houston's bullpen has also been excellent. Their 2.80 ERA is the best in MLB, and they converted 76.8% of their save opportunities (second-best).
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Offensively, the Astros are top-five in home runs, slugging and ISO. The lineup packs a serious punch with veteran Jose Altuve having a resurgent season at the top, batting .300 with 28 home runs, and youngster Yordan Alvarez having the second-best slugging behind only Aaron Judge, batting .306 with 37 home runs. Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker are also having superb seasons. The Astros combined for 4.55 runs per game this season (8th in MLB).
On the other side of this game is the surging Seattle Mariners, who look like a team of destiny. What they have done this season has exceeded all expectations, including a dramatic come-from-behind win to complete the sweep over the Jays in the Wild Card series.
Logan Gilbert looks to draw the start on Tuesday for the M's. Gilbert (13-6, 3.20 ERA) will be starting on ten days of rest and was slated to be the Game 3 starter vs. the Jays. After Gilbert, Castillo and Ray should be slotted back in. Castillo has been dominant since joining Seattle, but Robbie Ray has struggled in both the postseason and vs. the Astros. Ray has an ERA of 10.97, allowing a .422 BA to Astros hitters this year. Seattle's starters combined for a 3.75 ERA this year- the 11th-best in MLB
The bullpen for Seattle has been excellent, with the sixth-lowest ERA this year and converting 73% of their save opportunities.
Offensively, the Mariners have depended on rookie Julio Rodriguez who nearly won the Home Run Derby and is also the favorite for AL Rookie of the Year. His 28 home runs, 25 stolen bases and a .284 batting average have made the difference in this team. Cal Raleigh has been a late-season and postseason superstar. The catcher has 27 home runs this year and has added an extra spark. Eugenio Suarez leads the Mariners with HR (31), while Ty France has been hitting well all year with a .276 average, 20 home runs, and 84 RBI. Even still, the Mariners are not an offensive juggernaut. Their 4.26 runs per game in the regular season ranks 18th in MLB.
The Astros are looking to advance to their sixth consecutive ALCS. Their pitching and hitting are deep and well-rested after a first-round bye.
Betting Predictions
The Mariners are in the postseason for the first time in 21 years and look like a team of destiny. Everything is clicking for them at the exact right moment. The Astros have been beaten by late-surging teams before (see the 2019 World Series loss to the Wild Card Nationals), but this 106-win team is too well-built to bet against.
• Bet: Astros win series (-250)
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