Florida poll shows abortion referendum far short of passage, many voters still undecided

Four out of 10 Florida voters support a referendum that would enshrine abortion rights in the state Constitution, a poll showed Thursday, far short of the 60% majority needed for passage.

The Emerson College Polling survey found 42% of voters said they support the amendment. Another 25% said they would vote no.

The fate of the amendment will be decided by the large share — 32% of surveyed voters — who said they were undecided. That gives the campaigns being mapped out by both sides a large pool of voters they can try to sway in favor or opposition.

Abortion bans

Emerson’s pollsters found that most Florida voters feel that the current state limits on abortion, both of which were passed by Republicans who control the state Legislature and signed into law by Gov. Ron DeSantis, are too restrictive.

On May 1, almost all abortions after the sixth week of pregnancy will be illegal in Florida.

The Emerson poll found 57% of Florida voters believe the six-week ban is too strict, 28% think it is about right and 15% said it is not strict enough.

The current law, which bans almost all abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy, is seen as too strict by 43%, about right by 36% and not strict enough by 21%.

Amendment 4

Democrats and Republicans are sharply divided about Amendment 4, the proposal that would create a state constitutional right to abortion before fetal viability, which is generally seen as about 24 weeks.

Among Democrats, 56% said they would vote for the amendment, 16% would vote no and 28% are undecided.

Among independents, 44% said they would vote in favor, 22% said they would vote no and 34% were undecided.

Among Republicans, 30% said they would vote yes, 36% no and 34% undecided.

The two political parties are involved in the amendment campaigns.

The Florida Democratic Party is involved in efforts to support the referendum, arguing abortion restrictions improperly involve the government in decisions that should be made by pregnant women, their families and their doctors — and will result in injuries and death.

Some Democrats also hope that voters mobilized to turn out by the referendum will support their party’s candidates once they’re at the polls.

Florida Republicans are part of the effort to defeat the referendum. Top Republicans have called the amendment “extreme,” argued voters won’t understand the explanation that will appear on the ballot, and asserted it would produce “abortion laws more liberal than countries throughout Europe.”

The poll found men were more supportive of the proposed amendment than women. Far more women than men were undecided.

Among men, 45% said they would support it, 28% said they would oppose it and 28% were unsure.

Among women, 41% said they would support it, 23% said they would oppose it and 36% were unsure.

Fine Print

Emerson College Polling conducted its Florida survey of 1,000 registered voters on Tuesday and Wednesday, a little more than a week after the state Supreme Court approved of the six-week and 15-week abortion bans and allowed the proposed constitutional amendment to go on the November ballot.

The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points for the full survey of Democrats, Republicans and independents. The margin of error for smaller groups, such as Republicans or Democrats, or men and women, is higher because the sample sizes are smaller.

The pollster used a range of methods to reach voters: messages to cellphones with a link they could use to respond online, automatic voice calls, and an online panel of voters from a digital research company.

Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Facebook, Threads.net and Post.news.