Polling shows Democrats in danger of losing huge state prize
Eric Swalwell, a former member of Congress representing California, left that body because of a huge list of women making allegations that he assaulted them, even raped one.
He hasn’t been charged but the impact on his career has been huge, as he’s also dropped out of the race for the governorship in California.
And his dropping out has revealed the depth of disaster for the Democrat party in the U.S. after Joe Biden’s feeble four years in office and Kamala Harris’ huge disaster in the 2024 presidential race.
They are struggling to organize around a leader, a message, an idea that would service their party after President Donald Trump finishes his second term and their “But Trump” argument vanishes.
Now it appears they could be lined up to lose one of the biggest political prizes available: The governorship of California.
A new Emerson College poll, done with Inside California Politics, found 17% of voters support Republican Steve Hilton and 14% Republican Chad Bianco.
Also 14% support Tom Steyer, 10% Xavier Becerra, 10% Katie Porter, all Democrats.
Because of the state’s open primary agenda, it’s likely that the top two names in the primary, right now potentially both Republican, would run off in the general election.
That would leave Democrats on the outside of that race looking in.
“In the first Emerson poll since Eric Swalwell’s departure from the race for Governor, Democrats now split their vote between Tom Steyer (20%), Xavier Becerra (19%), and Katie Porter (15%), with Becerra gaining 15 points among Democrats without Swalwell on the ballot,” said Spencer Kimball, a spokesman for Emerson College Polling.
“Hilton and Bianco continue to split the Republican vote, 48% supporting Hilton and 40% Bianco, while independents are more fragmented: 16% support Steyer, 15% Hilton, 14% Bianco, and 10% Porter.”
The polling organization said, “Men split between the Republican candidates; 19% support both Hilton and Bianco respectively, while 18% support Steyer. Women voters are split between Hilton (14%), Becerra (14%), Porter (13%), Steyer (11%), and Bianco (11%).”
The economy is the top issue for California voters at 41%, followed by housing affordability at 20%, threats to democracy at 10%, crime at 6%, immigration at 6%, and healthcare at 6%.”
Under the direction of term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, the state’s finances have plunged and it now is facing huge deficits.
The poll was done April 14-15, 2026 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.
President Donald Trump has endorsed Hilton.
He said, “I have known and respected Steve Hilton, who is running for Governor of California, for many years. He is a truly fine man, one who has watched as this once great State has gone to Hell. Gavin Newscum and the Democrats have done an absolutely horrendous job. People are fleeing, crime is increasing, and Taxes are the highest of any State in the Country, maybe the World. Steve can turn it around, before it is too late, and, as President, I will help him to do so! With Federal help, and a Great Governor, like Steve Hilton, California can be better than ever before! Steve Hilton has my COMPLETE & TOTAL ENDORSEMENT. He will be a GREAT Governor and, importantly, WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!!!”
California hasn’t elected a Republican governor since Arnhold Schwarzenegger’s vote in 2006, and the state’s Democrat population is fragmented right now because of various headwinds to which their party has succumbed. There are 61 candidates on their primary ballot.