Staff picks: Plant-Lee, Ugas-Figueroa, Lipinets-Molina, Nery-Payano

It’s a big undercard on both pay-per-view and FOX on Saturday night.

Saturday night’s Pacquiao-Thurman card from Las Vegas has a two-part undercard, with two bouts featured on FOX, and then three more on pay-per-view prior to the main event.

Our staffers make their picks for four of the five fights we’ll see before Pacquiao-Thurman on Saturday.

Caleb Plant vs Mike Lee

Scott Christ

Remember John Duddy, the Irish middleweight of the 2000s who everyone wanted to be a star attraction in New York, but it was distressingly clear that he simply was not very good and was going to be found out as soon as he really stepped up? And then he almost — and should have, probably — lost to Walid Smichet in 2008, and then did lose to Billy Lyell in 2009, and lost again to Julio Cesar Chavez Jr in 2010, then retired?

Mike Lee isn’t as good as John Duddy was. Lee’s boxing career, which began nine years ago, has been a carefully orchestrated illusion from the minute he signed with Top Rank, and no amount of Notre Dame merchandise or Subway commercials could ever make him better once the bell rang. Please understand I’m not saying anything negative about the man. I don’t know the man, will never know the man, and I have nothing against him, really. But the fact that he’s even in this fight — which is for a world title — is absurd. Plant isn’t much of a puncher. Despite a respectable KO percentage (18-0, 10 KO), he’s never stopped anyone who was remotely good, and he prefers to box. He may not be able to not get Lee out, though. He’s going to outclass him that terribly. Plant TKO-9

Wil Esco

What a garbage fight. I think Caleb Plant has a backstory that’s extremely easy to sympathize with, but I just can’t sympathize with this matchmaking. For one, Mike Lee earned more notoriety from shilling Subway sandwiches than for anything he’s he ever done inside the ring. He’s really nothing more than a club-level fighter, and while that may sound harsh just have a look through his professional record. Making matters worse not only the fact Lee will be taking a tremendous step up in competition, but he’ll also be moving down to super middleweight for this fight. There’s a reason Lee was chosen as a voluntary defense for Plant, and you’ll see why this weekend. Plant UD-12

Patrick L. Stumberg

Caleb Plant is an elite super middleweight who admirably fought through adversity against a scary puncher in Jose Uzcategui, dropping the Venezuelan bruiser twice in the process despite a historical lack of power. Mike Lee is a mediocre light heavyweight who brings to mind a Great White Hope if you swapped the racism with, I don’t know, mild classism.

There’s absolutely nothing to suggest that Lee has any shot at all outside of a distressingly plausible robbery. Plant outclasses him for 36 drama-free minutes. Plant UD-12

Lewis Watson

It’s hard not to root for either of these guys. Both Plant and Lee have had their struggles outside of the ring in recent years (I highly recommend reading Mike Lee’s ‘Players Tribune’ piece from November 2017), but Plant has accelerated into the distance of the super-middleweight division. ‘Sweethands’ was superb in beating the 168lbs boogeyman Uzcategui, and will be looking to cement his standing as IBF titlist against a challenger who was once one of Top Rank’s biggest prospects. Plant is a lightening-fast, strong, super-middle, but Lee is coming down from 175lbs so may prove hard to shift despite getting outworked. The opening exchanges could be competitive, but I expect the fight to get easier and easier for Plant winning on the cards at a canter. Plant UD-12

And the staff winner is...

Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images

Caleb Plant (4-0)!

Luis Nery vs Juan Carlos Payano

Scott Christ

Payano is a good fighter but he has nothing for Nery. Look, we’re doing a lot of these picks this week and I just have nothing more to say about this one. Nery’s going to crush him in short order. Nery TKO-3

Wil Esco

Luis Nery hasn’t exactly endeared himself to boxing fans in recent years, but you can’t doubt that the man’s talented. Nery is still only 24 years old and has been cruising throughout his professional career thus far. Nery’s fast, throws good punches, and hits for solid power. Meanwhile Payano is 35 years old and is only one fight removed from getting swiftly knocked out by Naoya Inoue last October. Payano’s a pretty decent name for Nery to add to his résumé, and I think that’s all this fight is really about. I think Nery stops him in the first half. Nery TKO-5

Patrick L. Stumberg

It would be very nice to see Luis Nery fall this Saturday. Between the cheating and the blatant WBC favoritism, “Panterita” has done an impressive job of squandering the goodwill his aggressive style and crushing power generate. Unfortunately, we’ve already seen that Payano’s punch resistance is an issue; beyond his 70-second disaster against Naoya Inoue, he’s been down against Rau’shee Warren and Mike Plania, and Warren has just one stoppage in the last six years.

I know the transitive property doesn’t really work in this sport, but it’s not the most heartening track record against a guy who rarely takes more than four rounds to put people away. Nery smash. Nery KO-2

Lewis Watson

Nery has proved how destructive he can be at bantamweight, however, his issues outside of the ropes will always force an asterisk against his name in any wider conversation. I’m not sure what Payano has left after being ‘Inoue-d’ last year and will probably leave himself open to another blitzing at the hands of the unbeaten Mexican. Not much more to say on this one. Nery walks through him. Nery TKO-3

And the staff winner is...

Photo by Atsushi Tomura/Getty Images

Luis Nery (4-0)!

Sergey Lipinets vs John Molina Jr

Scott Christ

I expect this to be a pretty fun fight. Lipinets is pretty good, and his win over Lamont Peterson in March was solid and good TV, but Peterson was at the end, too. I can’t forget Lipinets badly struggling with Erick Bone last August, and even before that — and before his loss to Mikey Garcia — he had some problems with Lenny Zappavigna and his fight with Akihiro Kondo was, in my opinion, more competitive than the scorecards were. Molina is no world-beater and never has been, but on the right night he can be trouble for a limited opponent, as we saw against Ruslan Provodnikov in 2016. He went hard with Omar Figueroa Jr in February, too, and was in a war with Ivan Redkach before that.

Molina is what he is, and at 36, he’s not going to pull any surprises. But he’s always been a tough SOB, and I think he gives Lipinets a tougher fight than most expect, with some controversy in the decision. Maybe Lipinets fully turned a corner against Peterson, but I’m betting not, that he’s still plenty vulnerable. Lipinets SD-10

Wil Esco

John Molina?! Another fighter I’ve never been high on. But goodness gracious, when’s enough enough? I’m sure he’s not going to take this very kindly but let’s be real, Molina is 6-7 in his last 13 fights and got knocked out in three of them. At 36 years old, and with the number of clean head shots I’ve personally seen him take over the years, his best days have surely passed him by. Lipinets may not be a world beater, but he’s certainly good and fresh enough to take a win in this outing. Fuck it, let’s just tack on another knockout loss for Molina here. Lipinets TKO-10

Patrick L. Stumberg

Lipinets-Molina is my pick for Fight of the Weekend from a pure entertainment standpoint; I anticipate nothing less than utter chaos while both men remain conscious. Molina has a decent chunk of height and reach on the Russian slugger, but I think mileage may prove his downfall. Lipinets is an absolute tank who withstood huge shots from Mikey Garcia, and while Molina’s stayed on his feet and come out victorious against the likes of Ruslan Provodnikov, he’s also 36 years old.

It was just two fights ago that he went life-and-death with Ivan Redkach, after all. Expect plenty of quality slugging until Lipinets’ overhand right hits home. Lipinets TKO-6

Lewis Watson

Molina Jr’s recent record is littered with high-level defeats, but his recent inactivity worries me ahead of an aggressive Lipinets. ‘The Gladiator’ has fought once since 2017 dropping a wide UD to Figueroa, with a belief that he can climb the heights of his career-best Provodnikov win in 2016 again. Lipinets is improving at 30, with a dissection of Lamont Peterson in March a signal of intent at welterweight having suffered his only defeat at 140lbs. Stopping Molina early would be a statement from the Russian. Lipinets TKO-5

And the staff winner is...

Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images

Sergey Lipinets (4-0)!

Yordenis Ugas vs Omar Figueroa Jr

Scott Christ

Ugas is plenty more skilled than Omar Figueroa Jr, but when the light switches on for Figueroa, he’s usually a real handful. I know Ugas had an argument against Shawn Porter in March, but let’s not forget that Porter badly struggled to make weight for that fight, and then the fight itself was not one that anyone expected. Porter didn’t play the bully and charge at Ugas, which is what he’s best-known for, instead trying to bounce around and box, which made for Porter just not fighting as effectively as he probably could have if he’d just used his normal approach.

Figueroa’s not going to bounce around and he’s not going to box. He will come to Ugas, and while Ugas has the ability to outbox Figueroa pretty handily, probably, I don’t think he’s going to be able to do enough to discourage Figueroa, and the pace could really have an impact on Ugas if it’s how I think it’ll be. They’re both going to win rounds, there will be some toss-up rounds, and the decision might be debatable, but I’m going with Figueroa, whose aggression will be favored by the judges. Figueroa UD-12

Wil Esco

I’ve never been impressed by Omar Figuoera, to be quite honest. Yes, he may still be an undefeated welterweight, but I don’t think his heart has ever really been in the sport. Even listening to him talk it comes across as though boxing is something he just does because he grew up in it and he’s pretty good at it, but I don’t think he’s in love with the sport. That may not be the end of the world when facing a certain level of competition, but once you step up against those who are at least, if not more, talented than you, that can be all the difference. Figueroa works best against other scrappers who he can wear down, but I think Ugas also has the skills and desire to overcome whatever Figueroa brings. I think Figueroa takes his first L here, and maybe we don’t see him come back for a long while. Ugas TKO-8

Patrick L. Stumberg

There’s no doubt in my mind that Yordenis Ugas will outclass Omar Figueroa. Figueroa’s power hasn’t followed him up to 147 pounds and, without it, he lacks the tools to trouble a massively superior technician. The only question is whether the judges will actually reward the Cuban’s efforts appropriately; Figueroa has gotten unreasonably favorable scorecards in all of his close fights, while Ugas is coming off of a bogus decision loss to Shawn Porter.

Perhaps unwisely, I’m making my pick under the assumption that we’ll have at least two competent scorers. Ugas has amply demonstrated that he can deal with basic come-forward sluggers. He picks Figueroa apart from the outside, but still finds a way to lose on one scorecard. Ugas SD-12

Lewis Watson

This should be a competitive fight. Ugas earned his stripes dropping a tight split decision against Porter earlier this year and proved he can’t be overlooked at welterweight. If Ugas comes to box, he could make life easy for himself in the later rounds against a contender who will walk forward all night looking to be the aggressor. If Ugas engages in war then this could be a shootout with Figueroa capable of an upset. We tend to sleep on Figueroa due to his problems outside the ring but, on his night, he’ll leave everything in the ring. Ugas UD-12

And the staff winner is...

Photo by Steve Marcus/Getty Images

Yordenis Ugas (3-1)!