Kurtenbach: Warriors losing the benefit of the doubt in title push

After the worst fourth-quarter collapse in the NBA this season and the first 20-plus point lead blown by the Warriors in a regular-season game since 2007, Golden State is heading on the road for a brutal stretch of games to start off what appears to be a ruthless March.

And while one loss — as terrible and indefensible as it was — should not carry too much weight amid an 82-game schedule, it’s impossible to not view this upcoming stretch of four road games in a new light.

The loss to the Mavericks was so big, so memorable for all the wrong reasons, that I can’t help but think it’ll serve as a pivot point for the Warriors this season.

Had the Warriors simply held onto their 19-point lead with less than 10 minutes to play last night, we would be talking about a Dubs team that was 5 games back of the Suns in the Western Conference standings — a team that looked good coming out of the All-Star break; a team that has Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala, and James Wiseman coming back into the fold.

This column would have a different tone. One of positivity. One that claimed if the Warriors could keep pushing — if they could put some more pressure on Phoenix — they could take that No. 1 seed in due time. The Suns, as expected, are not the same without Chris Paul.

But the Warriors didn’t hold that lead, and they lost a rare chance to make up a game on the Suns in the process.

The Warriors needed to start this post-All-Star stretch in near-perfect fashion to contend for that top seed. Does one terrible fourth quarter eliminate that possibility?

No, but it does make the Warriors’ path to the top much harder.

The Warriors are developing a nasty habit over the last month-plus — they’re making things more difficult for themselves.

And, worse yet, when it comes to championship aspirations, the Dubs are losing the benefit of the doubt with their recent play.

With or without Green, with or without Iguodala, the Warriors need to re-establish themselves as a bonafide title contender in the days to come. Understanding that Green is crucial to their championship aspirations, the Warriors are showing flaws that even he cannot singlehandedly fix. The floor must be raised before Green can return and push up the roof.

If nothing else, the championship pride this team carries — or at least we presume they still carry — demands that the Warriors bounce back from Sunday’s loss, at the very least.

But the Warriors will put in 5,500-plus air miles over the next week, going from San Francisco to Minnesota for a Tuesday game. From there it’s on to Dallas (Thursday), Los Angeles (Lakers on Saturday), and Denver (Monday, that pesky make-up game from the suspect COVID postponement).

And when the Warriors arrive home from that, they’ll play the Clippers on Tuesday as part of a two-city, two-time-zone back-to-back.

That’s the kind of scheduling stretch you would prefer to enter with a cushion in the standings and some built-up goodwill with the fanbase.

The NBA has installed some losses for this team on the calendar.

But the Warriors lost that cushion — if they ever had it — when it came to the No. 1 seed.

And Sunday’s loss certainly eliminated the goodwill, something I like to crudely gauge by how many folks are advocating for Steve Kerr’s firing in my Twitter mentions and email inbox.

The Fire Steve Quotient was off the charts after Sunday’s game. It was as if the coach made the team go eight-plus minutes without making a shot. Why didn’t he run the “automatic basket” play against one of the NBA’s top defenses?

Regardless of internet irrationality, there is reason to be concerned. Golden State’s five losses in seven games stretch have seen them lose some serious ground over the Memphis Grizzlies, who entered their Monday game with the Spurs with a chance to move one game back of Golden State for the No. 2 seed.

Of course, the Warriors have downplayed seeing at every possible juncture. There’s a valid reason behind that, as Green explained over the weekend.

“The goal is to go win one on the road anyway,” the Warriors forward said. “After going through it so many times, you understand… I’ve won Game 7s on the road and lost Game 7s at home, so it doesn’t really matter. If you can get it, great, but I don’t feel like and I don’t feel like anyone in this organization feels like it’s worth it to exhaust yourself trying to chase after it.”

But even in a league where the regular season is treated like a months-long nuisance before the real games start, the standings do, indeed, matter.

Yes, the Warriors will be a different team whenever Green and Iguodala return. Yes, their championship pedigree is such that you don’t care much about where big games are played.

But the path to another NBA Finals should be of concern for the Dubs.

The No. 1 seed is exceptionally valuable. In a conference where three teams can call themselves true title contenders, the top seed will only have to face one of those squads in the playoffs. They’ll take on the victor of the 2-3 matchup (presuming chalk to that point in the bracket) after what would likely be a tough series. That’s sitting pretty.

The No. 2 seed has serious value, too, even if we ignore home-court advantage. Would you rather play a team from the play-in tournament — as the No. 2 seed would — or a true playoff squad like Denver or Dallas?

The Nuggets could get scorers Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back before the postseason. They have the NBA’s reigning MVP who could easily win it again this season.

The Warriors saw what the Mavericks can do on Sunday.

I’d rather play the Lakers, or whatever not-ready-for-primetime squad eliminates them from the play-in tournament.

The harder the Warriors make life for themselves, the greater the chance they are tripped up once the postseason comes around. The higher the likelihood that this resurgent season ends up short of the only acceptable goal. These are not the juggernaut Warriors of the Kevin Durant era. Tougher opponents likely mean more games. More games mean more wear-and-tear on veteran players, and if the Warriors’ veterans slip, at all, the team will find itself in a bad spot.

The waters ahead of choppy — the March schedule doesn’t relent after this crazy road trip — but Golden State has to steady the ship if they’re going to be voyaging into May and June.