Giannis Antetokounmpo avoided major injury, but the Bucks may still be in danger

Welcome to Layup Lines, For the Win’s basketball newsletter. Subscribe here to get it delivered to your inbox every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Have feedback for the Layup Lines Crew? Leave your questions, comments and concerns through this brief reader survey. Now, here’s Prince J. Grimes.

The Milwaukee Bucks are probably breathing a sigh of relief today after finding out the injury Giannis Antetokounmpo suffered in Tuesday night’s win over the Boston Celtics wasn’t what it first appeared to be.

Officially, Antetokounmpo has been diagnosed with a left calf strain. But the way he went down with no contact in the third quarter and immediately grabbed at the back of his leg, the worst-case scenario of an Achilles injury was feared.

Related: NBA officiating reached its all-time weirdest point in Bucks-Celtics matchup

Thankfully, Antetokounmpo avoided damage to his Achilles, The Athletic’s Shams Charania reported Wednesday morning. Crisis averted.

The Bucks aren’t out of hot water, though. Their best player is still injured with only 10 days to go before the start of the NBA playoffs. His return will be based on treatment and how his calf responds to rehab, according to Charania.

They also weren’t playing great basketball to begin with, losing four straight games — including three to non-playoff teams — before Tuesday’s win. It’s encouraging the Bucks were able to snap their skid against the best team in the league, but Antetokounmpo’s injury puts a real damper on any optimism for the playoffs. Milwaukee’s odds to win the NBA title have dropped from +850 to +1100 at BetMGM.

.@Bucks odds to win NBA Championship at #BetMGM

+850: Before Giannis' calf strain

+1100: Now pic.twitter.com/zJoBUx9MMv

— John Ewing (@johnewing) April 10, 2024

The drop makes sense. This is the exact thing that doomed Milwaukee last postseason, when Antetokounmpo suffered an injury in Game 1 of the first round and the team was upset by the eighth-seeded Miami Heat.

With so little time for Antetokounmpo to recover, the Bucks are at risk of facing a similar fate in 2024. Whether they remain at No. 2 in the Eastern Conference or slide to three, there’s a good chance they’ll have to play either Miami again or the surging Philadelphia 76ers — both teams nobody wants to see in the first round, especially not with their best player hobbled.

A shaky season for the Bucks just got even shakier.

On second thought, maybe the Sixers are fine?

Last week, after Joel Embiid made his long-awaited return to the court for the Philadelphia 76ers, I basically pooh-poohed their chances to make a deep playoff run. And while I don’t necessarily want to walk back those thoughts after just a four-game sample size, I will say Philadelphia seems to be getting back into a groove quicker than I thought they would.

The Sixers have won six straight games, including five since Embiid’s return and four that he played in. And though just two of those wins came over potential playoff teams, Embiid looked a lot better than I thought he would at this point.

The reigning MVP has averaged 30 points on 51% shooting and 45% from three in his return, picking up right about where he left off when he went down in January. He had 37 points, 11 rebounds, eight assists, three steals and two blocks in Tuesday’s win over the Detroit Pistons, which came without Tyrese Maxey (who scored 52! his previous game).

Joel Embiid drives and sinks the CIRCUS shot while falling

DET-PHI | Live on the NBA App
https://t.co/0xtai2OyvF pic.twitter.com/ekvfBxagOn

— NBA (@NBA) April 10, 2024

Furthermore, the Sixers sit just a game back of the Indiana Pacers for the sixth seed, which would allow them to avoid the play-in tournament. Even if they can’t avoid it, the play-in might not be the worst thing in the world now after news of Giannis Antetokounmpo’s injury. As long as the Sixers can avoid the eighth seed and a first-round meeting with the Celtics, they probably feel good about their chances to go on a run with the way they’re rolling. Their +2000 title odds at BetMGM are third-best in the conference.

I still think the playoffs present a different type of challenge, one I’ll need to see them respond to before I completely buy in to their ability to reach even the conference finals. Especially considering Embiid hasn’t always elevated his game in the postseason. But I have to admit, things look a little sunnier in Philadelphia these days.

One to Watch

(All odds via BetMGM)

Minnesota Timberwolves (+190) at Denver Nuggets (-5.5; -250), 10:10 p.m. ET

This is a huge game for these teams, as they’re currently tied for first place in the Western Conference. The winner will obviously grab sole possession by a full-game, and with just two games left after this, they’ll be in the driver seat to finish the season there. Knowing what’s at stake, and with both teams playing on the second night of back-to-backs, I think this turns into a defensive battle that falls under the 211.5 total.

Shootaround

— ICYMI: Here’s Mike Sykes on how NBA officiating reached its all-time weirdest point

— Victor Wembanyama pulled off a breathtaking spin move and dunk against the Grizzlies

— Bulls teammates Torrey Craig and Andre Drummond went for a dunk at the same time. It didn’t end well

— Explaining Damian Lillard’s unorthodox water ball workout that went viral

That’s it from me y’all. Check back Friday for more Layup Lines.