Senate gridlock could worsen with Romney, Sinema, Manchin retirements: experts

The Senate is losing three of the more moderate lawmakers in the body, and some experts predict it could lead to more gridlock in the already narrowly divided upper chamber.

The already narrowly divided Senate could see more gridlock in 2025, with several of the less partisan lawmakers from both sides of the aisle departing.

As Sens. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz., and Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., each prepare to leave the Senate, questions loom over the upper chamber's future ability to legislate across party lines. 

"The Senate is trending to be much more of a hostile atmosphere as more moderate or independent-minded senators are retiring," said Republican strategist Ron Bonjean, former top spokesperson to former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott and former chief of staff of the Senate Republican Conference.

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"More deadlock and stalemate" is a likely outcome if the aforementioned lawmakers are succeeded by "more polarized and polarizing figures," said Grant Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University. 

Daniel Wirls, a politics professor at the University of California, Santa Cruz, said that "the number and degree of stalemates might be hard to predict." He also said the moderate senators in each party "did not necessarily remedy or reduce the stalemates." 

"In some instances, they may have complicated them," he added.

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Romney's office pointed Fox News Digital to past comments he made about the future of the Senate.

"We got a lot of stuff done on a bipartisan basis," Romney told CNN following news in March that Sinema would not seek re-election. "That is really over. That is not going to keep happening."

The Utah Republican reminisced last year about a bipartisan effort during the COVID-19 pandemic, telling Politico in September, "That group was so productive. And it was so fun."

"That little group, I think, is not going to be around. And so, time for new groups to form," he said.

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Bonjean predicted that the three lawmakers who have bucked their parties on occasion will be succeeded by "more partisan and party-line voices." He also said that such successors won't necessarily be interested in looking for bipartisan ways to legislate "and instead dig into their positions."

However, Reeher said Arizona, West Virginia and Utah each "can, and have, produced more moderate representatives over the years."  

"So, perhaps similar senators will follow them," he said. 

Another consideration for the Senate, sans Romney, Manchin and Sinema, is the fate of the controversial filibuster, which allows senators to effectively kill a bill that is unable to reach 60 votes on a procedural cloture measure.

"Through its filibuster rule, the Senate is also built to amplify the voice of moderates – at least in moments of great polarization. Senator No. 60 becomes more important than Senator No. 51," Reeher said. 

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Manchin and Sinema have notoriously opposed efforts by Democrats to do away with the procedural device.

Reeher suggested that with the potential for "more polarized and polarizing figures" entering the upper chamber, "even Senator No. 60," who would be needed to break a filibuster, "may not be a moderate."

If the Senate does become more partisan with fewer lawmakers willing to diverge with their parties, it's unlikely either Democrats or Republicans would get very far without a challenge. Reeher said it "doesn’t seem likely anytime soon" that either party will get 60 seats in the Senate and thus the ability to bypass a filibuster without bipartisan assistance.

Wirls predicted that if given the opportunity to control all three branches of government, Democrats could be expected to once again "revive efforts to reform if not eliminate the Senate filibuster."

But he cautioned that such a scenario is "hardly a given."

Representatives for Sinema and Manchin did not provide comment in time for publication.