Better know a draft prospect: Braden Montgomery

The Texas A&M outfielder possesses a powerful bat and arm.

With the MLB draft just a couple of months away, let’s continue evaluating some prospects that the Royals may consider drafting with the sixth overall pick. There are eight college players that are generally considered the best prospects in this class (though this consensus is waning as some prep players rise up draft boards). I started this series off with Nick Kurtz before Max stole my bit wrote up Hagen Smith. Today we’ll evaluate Texas A&M outfielder Braden Montgomery.

Montgomery was born in Des Moines but grew up in Madison, Mississippi. The son of former collegiate athletes at Iowa, Montgomery put together an illustrious prep baseball career at Madison Central High School. In his senior year, he guided Madison Central to a state championship while garnering Mississippi Gatorade Player of the Year honors. Despite being ranked #23 among prep prospects by Perfect Game, Montgomery went undrafted, in part due to a strong commitment to Stanford.

In 2022, Stanford had a veteran roster coming off an appearance in the College World Series. Nonetheless, the freshman Montgomery made his debut on opening day for the Cardinal against Cal State Fullerton. He entered in the ninth inning of a 1-0 game and struck out two en route to recording the save. That’s right, Montgomery was recruited as a two-way player and made his collegiate debut not in the box but on the mound. He had his first game offensively later that weekend and collected three hits, two of them homers. Montgomery would not lose his lineup spot after that, spending the rest of the season as Stanford’s starting right fielder while also regularly pitching in relief. His wildness precluded him from high-leverage innings, but he was hitting cleanup by the time Stanford reached the conference tournament.

Stanford had a very strong regular season and entered the NCAA Tournament as the #2 overall seed. They got a strong push from Texas State in their home regional but managed to win, then took care of business in their super regional against UConn after losing game one. Just like in 2021, Stanford rolled into Omaha but went 0-2, getting outscored 23-4 against a couple SEC teams.

For his part, Montgomery reached base in every tournament game, going 10-for-39 with a double, a triple, two homers, and five walks. He pitched just once in the postseason and struggled. He finished his freshman season hitting .294/.361/.596 with 16 doubles and 18 homers. On the mound, he had a 5.79 ERA in 18.2 innings with 28 strikeouts but 21 walks. After collecting Pac-12 Freshman of the Year honors, Montgomery headed to the Cape Cod League, where he hit .250/.333/.500 in 69 plate appearances while also striking out six and allowing just two baserunners in four innings pitched.

The Cardinal entered 2023 with expectations of returning to Omaha, with Montgomery anchoring the outfield and the back of the bullpen. The latter didn’t really happen — the sophomore continued to struggle with command and was also much more hittable than he had been as a freshman. He would only make ten pitching appearances. Offensively, Montgomery was everything Stanford could have asked for from a middle-of-the-order hitter while also demonstrating improved on-base skills. He carried over an on-base streak from the prior season that would reach 40 games and then ended the season with an active streak of 28.

Once again hosting a regional, this time as the #8 seed, Stanford took care of business against Texas A&M before winning a hard-fought super against Texas. Unfortunately, Stanford’s Omaha losing streak reached seven games as they dropped both games. Montgomery was outstanding in postseason play, going 15-for-41 with two doubles, two homers, and four walks. He made one pitching appearance in the tournament and allowed a run while striking out three across 2.1 innings. He finished the season hitting .336/.461/.611 with 14 doubles and 17 homers. Montgomery would spend time with the collegiate national team that summer while also posting a cool .340/.429/.472 on the Cape. Also that summer, to the surprise of many, Montgomery entered the transfer portal and chose to take his talents to College Station, Texas.

Texas A&M looked to improve on their disappointing 2023 season with the help of their high-profile acquisition. The Aggies have essentially given up on having Montgomery pitch — he’s made just two appearances on the mound — and told the junior, “Go rake.” And rake he has, collecting four hits in the first two games of the season and not looking back.

He hasn’t had any trouble adjusting to SEC pitching, hitting four homers in the first two weekends of conference play. Montgomery earned SEC Player of the Week honors the following weekend after going 7-for-14 with four homers, two doubles, and two walks against Auburn. He’s been in a slump of late as Montgomery is just 5-for-43 over the last 1 11 games. Even with that recent slide, Montgomery is hitting .326/.463/.749 with 26 home runs this year.

Montgomery has been mentioned in the group of eight college players that have been at the top of this draft class for a while now, with his exact standing among them depending on who you ask:

MLB Pipeline: 5

Prospects Live: 4

Perfect Game: 4

Future Stars Series: 3

Baseball America ($): 5

Keith Law ($): 8

Kiley McDaniel ($): 7

Montgomery is a switch hitter that can do a bit of everything at the plate. He’s always hit for power but the most encouraging trend throughout his collegiate career has been the positive development of his approach:

As a freshman, Montgomery was swinging at everything. He grew more selective as a sophomore and has continued that trend through his junior year while continuing to hit for power. The strikeout rate is still a bit elevated for an elite prospect, but it’s come a long way in just a few short years.

If you were teaching a kid how to set up in the box, Montgomery would be a good example of fundamentals. He stands square with a slight crouch, setting up with his hands close to his back shoulder. His whole operation is quiet, loading simple and shallow while taking a small leg kick and short stride. The swing is a work of art: once he starts his hands forward, the bat explodes through the zone with evident plus bat speed from his short, top-hand swing.

Despite being right-handed, Montgomery’s swing from that side of the plate isn’t quite as good. The setup is similar, but he seems to load with his hands a bit higher up and closer to his head. I think this is to compensate for the fact that his swing is a bit longer from the right side, but he is still probably a viable switch-hitter at the next level.

His game at the plate has been complete in 2024, but he’s definitely power-over-hit as a prospect. The approach has improved but there is still some in-zone swing-and-miss here. The hit tool questions are what keeps Montgomery below guys like Charlie Condon and Travis Bazzana at the very top of draft boards. Montgomery hasn’t really been a factor on the basepaths, going 17-for-24 on stolen bases in college.

Where exactly Montgomery goes in the top ten may come down to whether or not a team believes he can play center field. Montgomery has exclusively been used in right field in college, where he has been very good defensively. His speed is just average but he’s a tremendous athlete and some teams may be able to convince themselves he could work in center with good coaching.

The carrying tool defensively is his arm, which should come as no surprise given his background in pitching. Montgomery has a legit 80-grade arm, a missile launcher attached to his right shoulder that may be the best outfield arm in the class. Whether he mans center or right field, baserunners will be wary of taking extra bases when Montgomery fields the ball.

Braden Montgomery is probably the third-to-fifth best offensive prospect in this draft class, depending on one’s opinion of Kurtz and Jac Caglianone. Unlike those two guys, Montgomery is not limited to first base defensively. However, Kurtz has a superior hit tool at present and Caglianone has perhaps the most raw power in the class. If the Royals believe they can help Montgomery cut down on his whiffs and clean up his swing from the right side, he could be an excellent pick at the top of their draft class.