Forecast: The activation efforts to break Karabakh status quo denying interests of Moscow could lead to changes in Moscow`s policy.
ArmInfo.CSTO Secretary General signal is the dissatisfaction of Moscow with the efforts of one-legged break of Karabakh status quo, denying Russia's interests, Sergey Markedonov, Russian political expert, shared his opinion with ArmInfo.
On December 29, 2016, in the result of diversion penetration attempt of Azerbaijani troops to the territory of Armenia, three Armenian soldiers perished. Commenting the incident on the same day, CSTO Secretary General Nikolay Bordjuzha made a statement in wording as follows: " We estimate these actions at the territory of CSTO member country as a provocation, especially taking into consideration of a hard incident within using heavy weapons taken place in April this year".
"In other words, a vector is being shaped, according to which the continuation and activation of political line well known yet due to events of 2004-2008 in South Ossetia would lead to changes in Moscow's policy . Of course, Russia will not break the power balance itself. That is not of Russia's interests, as far as that may cause additional risks. But if somebody else tries to play this game, Russia will have a right to response, and it is not a must to be responded now," he mentioned.
Markedonov thinks, that today Russian political elite does not see a necessity of strict choice between Yerevan and Baku, which does not mean that this situation will be unchanged. And many things here depend not only on Kremlin and it's resources. But holding back the conflict escalation should be implemented by Russia anyway.
Starting with January 1, 2017 the CSTO Secretary General responsibilities will be performed by Valeri Semerikov, the Deputy Secretary General, "due to expiration of Nikolay Bordjuzha's responsibility term on December 31, 2016." According to the Statutes of the Organization, the post of the CSTO Secretary General should be occupied by Armenian representative. But in October and December 2016 the issue has been excluded from Agena due to the absence of Kazakhstan President and Belarusian President.