Heading for disaster on Cyprus problem

We have no time to renegotiate the Guterres Framework

By Christos Panayiotides

I must admit that I am deeply concerned by the fact that we appear to be going full steam ahead for yet another – this time crushing – defeat in the struggle we are supposedly waging for the reunification of Cyprus.

In 1974, we conceded to neighbouring Turkey the leading role in the process of determining the political future of Cyprus and, since then, we have insisted on following the same “defensive” tactics of limiting ourselves to rejecting the plethora of the proposals advanced by our friends, to whom we had turned for help in resolving the issue. The list of the rejected UN proposals is fairly long, resulting – in the eyes of the international community – in the “victim” becoming the “perpetrator” of the crime.

After the incoherent and irresponsible rejection by the former president and his advisers of the Guterres Framework as the basis of a functional solution to the Cyprus problem, and the promotion of the idea of a two-state solution – in the context of a “brainstorm” (sic) – we are going once again full steam ahead towards hitting the rocks.

If I understand it correctly, the intention of the current president is to “renegotiate” two of the six points of the Guterres Framework in the talks, which we are struggling to relaunch. I confess that I have not understood what the negotiating card is that we have suddenly acquired which will enable us to contain the anticipated reaction of the other side. They will argue that, since the Greek Cypriot side raises the issue of renegotiating two points of the framework, the other side automatically acquires the right to renegotiate two others of its points. Is there any doubt in the mind of any reasonable person that this will be the outcome of the tactics that we are appearing to pursue?

So, when the UN secretary-general confirms the impasse and declares the Cyprus problem as unsolvable, neighbouring Turkey will rub its hands and the majority of our fellow Turkish Cypriots will cry with us over the ruins that can no longer be restored.

Then, the first round of the Cyprus tragedy will come to its close and the second round will begin, which in the medium to long term will lead to the conquest of the whole of Cyprus by Turkey. I am sure that some of you will be quick to say that this is not possible. To this response, I would simply point out that this was exactly the reaction I got when the risk of provoking a Turkish invasion was being discussed, back in 1974.

A successful management of these risks demands a change in our tactics. It is imperative to move away from the defensive tactics we have employed in the past, which exclusively consisted of rejecting all the international solutions that were being proposed to us. We need to employ an imaginative, friendly approach that aims at satisfying the basic expectations of the Greek Cypriots, the Turkish Cypriots and the Turkish immigrants, who will remain in Cyprus.

In my humble opinion, the only conditions that should be set for reaching an agreed solution should be the following:

• Severing the “umbilical cord” that today connects northern Cyprus with Turkey, by securing the political independence and the economic viability of the two constituent states of the Federal Republic of Cyprus. It is obvious that the interests of Cyprus, on the one hand, and those of Turkey and Greece, on the other hand, are only partially identical. It follows that the lack of sufficient political and economic independence on the part of the two constituent states of Cyprus vis-à-vis Turkey and Greece is bound to lead to undesirable friction and conflicts. I consider the goal of severing the political umbilical cord between Cyprus and the “mother-states” as a perfectly legitimate and justified goal.

• Ensuring that a common body of legislative rules is applicable throughout Cyprus. Given that these rules are prescribed by European regulations and European guidelines, achieving this goal should not be particularly difficult, especially if we allow that the purely local rules can take the form of secondary legislation enacted by the executive arm of each constituent-state, based on the delegated authority given under the related primary legislation. It is understood that the adoption of primary legislation will require at least one positive vote from the representatives of each constituent state, while the implementation of the rules (at the level of each constituent state) will be a task undertaken by each constituent state, subject to the recourse to justice, in the case of “mismanagement”.

• Securing the minimum necessary level of coherence at the level of the federal government (particularly in view of the rotating presidency), with a weighted electoral system, based on “connected” electoral platforms. It is obvious that a system that would allow frequent policy changes, because the rotated presidents happen to have diametrically opposed political views, will lead to meaningless – and disastrous – friction and conflicts.

• Above all, securing a system in which all citizens – without exception – would feel safe and able to look into the future with certainty and optimism, within the framework of a united Europe.

The only solution to the Cyprus problem that has prospects of surviving in the long run is the solution that will be placed within the framework of the European Union and will provide conditions of real political equality to the Turkish Cypriots and the Turkish settlers who will become European citizens.

Such a comprehensive proposal was formulated about a year ago, by a twelve-member thinktank comprising of Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots. This proposal has been well received by the European Commission and should be seriously considered by all Cypriots who genuinely wish to see Cyprus surviving over time. It needs to be studied by the Greek Cypriot leadership, in relation to what they realistically believe they can achieve over the next six months.

The proposal is set out and explained on the website eastmed-thinktank.com. Public acceptance of the proposal is not necessary, as long as assurances are given that the proposal is swiftly adopted, as soon as it is adopted by the other side.

The timeframe for achieving the reunification of Cyprus is extremely tight and the possibility of lengthy negotiations on the issue does not exist. The goal should not be “the resumption of the negotiation process from where it was left at the Crans-Montana, in 2017”, but rather “the early conclusion of the talks, on the basis of a bicommunal bizonal federation, with political equality and within the Guterres Framework”.

Christos Panayiotides is a freelance political commentator